TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Nazar Danyliuk vs Bohdan Kohut 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1195118111315––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:44 and never touched: 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Bohdan Kohut below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 83 set 4, 13-15 · our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 75.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 95–35 Bohdan Kohut Bohdan Kohut has won 35 of their 130 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Danyliuk beat Kohut 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4475.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Danyliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
95-35 in 130
Danyliuk
Wrong
gap of 60 in 130, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2128 vs Kohut 1873
Danyliuk
Wrong
both rated, 255 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 60% vs Kohut 20%
Danyliuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 60% vs Kohut 10%
Danyliuk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +1 · Kohut +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Danyliuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kohut form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.333 / Kohut 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Danyliuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13266039
Danyliuk1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 189 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it95% 96 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it81% 138 of 170
Kohut3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 101 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back17% 28 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk9wins
AwayKohut1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayKohut0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk7Kohut3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S2Danyliuk5Kohut5n = 10split evenly
S3Danyliuk9Kohut1n = 10Danyliuk took 9 of 10
S4Danyliuk2Kohut5n = 7Kohut took 5 of 7
S5Danyliuk5Kohut0n = 5Danyliuk took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukKohutD − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.140.2+2.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukKohutBasisWin rate · lifetime585 / 955 vs 307 / 70561.3%43.6%585 / 955 vs 307 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.33/Kohut 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kohut won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 14:55N. Danyliuk331111113B. Kohut238960
WOct 6 · 09:05N. Danyliuk51912118113B. Kohut49111081192
WOct 5 · 12:35N. Danyliuk48611119113B. Kohut4511971172
WOct 5 · 01:38N. Danyliuk331111113B. Kohut237790
WOct 4 · 21:00N. Danyliuk43114116113B. Kohut4371161182
WSep 29 · 05:25N. Danyliuk371115113B. Kohut2761380
LSep 28 · 17:23N. Danyliuk4012141041B. Kohut49101612113
WSep 28 · 13:25N. Danyliuk39113113113B. Kohut4391161162
WSep 27 · 21:45N. Danyliuk53141414113B. Kohut4912161291
WSep 23 · 09:35N. Danyliuk54891511113B. Kohut51111113792
N. Danyliuk10
WOct 9 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.2081111113S. Rak4.33115981WOct 9 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.3011118143D. Zeniuk3.409711121LOct 8 · 17:44A. Molochko2.0011711113N. Danyliuk1.73811791WOct 8 · 16:25V. Verbyany2.6368111192N. Danyliuk1.44111196113WOct 8 · 14:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258960LOct 8 · 13:25N. Danyliuk1.531210813102A. Molochko2.3810121111123WOct 8 · 11:55N. Danyliuk1.401112113S. Rak2.7561040LOct 6 · 10:35N. Danyliuk1.5341181172V. Verbyany2.38118117113WOct 6 · 09:05N. Danyliuk1.30912118113B. Kohut3.40111081192LOct 6 · 07:35N. Danyliuk1.20711981S. Rak4.3311811113
B. Kohut10
WOct 9 · 04:55A. Molochko1.443370B. Kohut2.631111113LOct 8 · 15:55B. Kohut1.578121111102S. Rak2.25111478123LOct 8 · 14:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258960LOct 8 · 13:55V. Verbyany1.67211119113B. Kohut2.1011981132LOct 8 · 12:25A. Molochko1.5371411143B. Kohut2.3811127121LOct 6 · 11:05B. Kohut1.67711591D. Zeniuk2.1011911113LOct 6 · 09:05N. Danyliuk1.30912118113B. Kohut3.40111081192LOct 6 · 08:05B. Kohut2.636970A. Molochko1.441111113LOct 6 · 07:05V. Verbyany1.7311115113B. Kohut2.00591171LOct 6 · 05:35B. Kohut1.3341180S. Rak3.251113113
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