TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Kohut vs Vasily Verbyany 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Kohut above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 49 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Kohut 60–58 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 58 of their 118 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
60-58 in 118
Kohut
Wrong
gap of 2 in 118, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kohut 1911 vs Verbyany 1934
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kohut 80% vs Verbyany 20%
Kohut
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kohut 40% vs Verbyany 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kohut +1 · Verbyany -4
Verbyany
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKohut 2.00 / Verbyany 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Verbyany)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276847
Kohut2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 103 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back18% 29 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 103
Verbyany1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite58% won 60 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it77% 47 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKohut4wins
AwayVerbyany6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKohut66.7%4 of 6
AwayVerbyany100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kohut6Verbyany4n = 10Kohut took 6 of 10
S2Kohut3Verbyany7n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S3Kohut3Verbyany7n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S4Kohut6Verbyany3n = 9Kohut took 6 of 9
S5Kohut1Verbyany2n = 3Verbyany took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKohutVerbyanyK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.0−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKohutVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 709 vs 348 / 82743.7%42.1%310 / 709 vs 348 / 827Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyKohut 2.00/Verbyany 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 07:55B. Kohut45122911113V. Verbyany38101111422
LOct 8 · 13:55B. Kohut4211981132V. Verbyany44211119113
LOct 6 · 07:05B. Kohut32591171V. Verbyany3811115113
LOct 5 · 16:05B. Kohut25531161V. Verbyany4111118113
WOct 4 · 20:00B. Kohut4411118143V. Verbyany376811121
LSep 29 · 06:25B. Kohut4889111462V. Verbyany521111712113
WSep 28 · 14:55B. Kohut3912115113V. Verbyany381081191
LSep 27 · 23:15B. Kohut196670V. Verbyany331111113
WSep 23 · 07:35B. Kohut4411126153V. Verbyany4061011131
LSep 22 · 12:35B. Kohut29115491V. Verbyany3961111113
B. Kohut10
WOct 9 · 11:25S. Rak2.75741461B. Kohut1.40111112113LOct 9 · 09:55B. Kohut1.83115715102D. Zeniuk1.839111113123WOct 9 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.67101111422B. Kohut2.10122911113WOct 9 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.331158131B. Kohut3.2591111153WOct 9 · 04:55A. Molochko1.443370B. Kohut2.631111113LOct 8 · 15:55B. Kohut1.578121111102S. Rak2.25111478123LOct 8 · 14:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258960LOct 8 · 13:55V. Verbyany1.67211119113B. Kohut2.1011981132LOct 8 · 12:25A. Molochko1.5371411143B. Kohut2.3811127121LOct 6 · 11:05B. Kohut1.67711591D. Zeniuk2.1011911113
V. Verbyany10
LOct 9 · 10:55V. Verbyany2.003980D. Zeniuk1.731111113LOct 9 · 08:55N. Danyliuk1.50111110113V. Verbyany2.50851271LOct 9 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.67101111422B. Kohut2.10122911113LOct 9 · 06:55A. Molochko1.73111298113V. Verbyany2.00610111182WOct 9 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.2041111113S. Rak4.33116261WOct 8 · 17:15S. Rak4.50118621V. Verbyany1.1781111113LOct 8 · 16:25V. Verbyany2.6368111192N. Danyliuk1.44111196113LOct 8 · 15:25V. Verbyany2.0031380A. Molochko1.731115113WOct 8 · 13:55V. Verbyany1.67211119113B. Kohut2.1011981132WOct 8 · 12:55V. Verbyany1.2511611113S. Rak3.75811481
Upcoming Matches
B. Kohut
V. Verbyany
Oct 11 · 22:00V. Verbyany2.10A. Molochko1.67—Oct 12 · 00:00V. Verbyany1.17A. Zeniuk4.50—Oct 12 · 01:30V. Verbyany2.20D. Zeniuk1.61—Oct 12 · 02:30V. Verbyany2.25N. Danyliuk1.57—Oct 12 · 12:05V. Verbyany2.10A. Molochko1.67—Oct 12 · 16:05V. Verbyany1.67B. Kohut2.10—Oct 12 · 17:35V. Verbyany1.17A. Zeniuk4.50—Oct 12 · 18:35V. Verbyany2.25N. Danyliuk1.57—
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