Valentyn Chumak vs Ivan Yelfimov 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Valentyn Chumak

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

119118115––––

Ivan Yelfimov

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%

Graded at full time

Ivan Yelfimov to win

54.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Ivan Yelfimov below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-5

Point 55 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Ivan Yelfimov at 54.9%

55 points played in total.

H2H Valentyn Chumak 3–3 Ivan Yelfimov Dead even across their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 3–3Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Yelfimov

Chumak 2.00/Yelfimov 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.9%

Yelfimov · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Chumak won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:42

54.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.0pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Yelfimov

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

3-3 in 6

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Chumak 1492 vs Yelfimov 1528

Yelfimov

Wrong

both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Chumak 60% vs Yelfimov 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Chumak 60% vs Yelfimov 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Chumak +2 · Yelfimov +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Yelfimov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChumak 2.00 / Yelfimov 1.727

Signal prob.45% / 55%

Edge (Yelfimov)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeChumak3wins

AwayYelfimov3wins

4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChumak66.7%2 of 3

AwayYelfimov66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chumak3Yelfimov3n = 6split evenly

S2Chumak6Yelfimov0n = 6Chumak took 6 of 6

S3Chumak2Yelfimov4n = 6Yelfimov took 4 of 6

S4Chumak3Yelfimov2n = 5Chumak took 3 of 5

S5Chumak1Yelfimov3n = 4Yelfimov took 3 of 4

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home117%

3–1Four sets, home117%

3–2Decider, home117%

2–3Decider, away350%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 6 meetings

MetricChumakYelfimovC − YBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.839.5+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChumakYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 560 vs 33 / 5052.9%66%296 / 560 vs 33 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.8per match

Setka Cup · #13281461

Chumak2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog44% won 55 of 124

Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 62

Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30

Yelfimov1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite75% won 18 of 24

Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11

Up 1–0, closes it90% 17 of 19

Valentyn Chumak vs Ivan Yelfimov 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Valentyn Chumak vs Ivan Yelfimov 3-0 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.