Mykyta Smyrnov vs Orest Hura 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 13Finished

Mykyta Smyrnov

Home

2.20

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 3

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

13118111210911911

Orest Hura

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:35 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Orest Hura to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Orest Hura below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 9-11

Point 105 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Orest Hura at 58.9%

105 points played in total.

H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 42–36 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 36 of their 78 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6SplitHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Hura

Smyrnov 2.20/Hura 1.61

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.9%

Hura · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Hura won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 01:35

58.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Hura

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

42-36 in 78

Smyrnov

Wrong

gap of 6 in 78, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Smyrnov 1496 vs Hura 1544

Hura

Correct

both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Smyrnov 40% vs Hura 20%

Smyrnov

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Smyrnov 30% vs Hura 20%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Smyrnov -3 · Hura -2

Smyrnov

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hura: form 20%, the price implies 62%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSmyrnov 2.20 / Hura 1.615

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Hura)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSmyrnov4wins

AwayHura6wins

3 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSmyrnov57.1%4 of 7

AwayHura100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Smyrnov7Hura3n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10

S2Smyrnov2Hura8n = 10Hura took 8 of 10

S3Smyrnov4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10

S4Smyrnov4Hura4n = 8split evenly

S5Smyrnov1Hura2n = 3Hura took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricSmyrnovHuraS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.141.4−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSmyrnovHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 886 vs 416 / 80548.2%51.7%427 / 886 vs 416 / 805Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.9per match

Setka Cup · #13281099

Smyrnov2.20

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 94 of 233

Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 117

Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79

Hura1.61

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite52% won 101 of 193

Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50

Up 1–0, closes it72% 70 of 97

Mykyta Smyrnov vs Orest Hura 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Mykyta Smyrnov vs Orest Hura 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.