Oleksii Mitla vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 13Finished

Oleksii Mitla

Home

1.91

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

12141412112117––

Mykyta Smyrnov

Away

1.80

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Oleksii Mitla to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Mykyta Smyrnov below

Set 1 · 12-14

Set 2 · 14-12

Set 3 · 11-2

Set 4 · 11-7

Point 83 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Oleksii Mitla at 54.0%

83 points played in total.

H2H Oleksii Mitla 60–50 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 50 of their 110 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mitla

Mitla 1.91/Smyrnov 1.80

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Mitla · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Mitla won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 03:01

54.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909

clears by 1.6pp

52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Smyrnov

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

60-50 in 110

Mitla

Correct

gap of 10 in 110, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mitla 1523 vs Smyrnov 1487

Mitla

Correct

both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mitla 20% vs Smyrnov 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mitla 30% vs Smyrnov 30%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Mitla -2 · Smyrnov -4

Smyrnov

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mitla) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smyrnov: form 20%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMitla 1.909 / Smyrnov 1.80

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Mitla)+1.6pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMitla5wins

AwaySmyrnov5wins

Level at 5–5.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMitla80%4 of 5

AwaySmyrnov80%4 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mitla5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly

S2Mitla4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10

S3Mitla5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly

S4Mitla3Smyrnov2n = 5Mitla took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricMitlaSmyrnovM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.433.2−0.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMitlaSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 856 vs 427 / 88743.6%48.1%373 / 856 vs 427 / 887Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.3per match

Setka Cup · #13281100

Mitla1.91

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 130 of 322

Down 0–1, comes back24% 48 of 197

Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 116

Smyrnov1.80

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite58% won 108 of 186

Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56

Up 1–0, closes it75% 80 of 107

Oleksii Mitla vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksii Mitla vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.