Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Ruslan Lazebnyi

Home

1.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

118119112––––

Mykyta Smyrnov

Away

2.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:37 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%

Graded at full time

Ruslan Lazebnyi to win

63.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Mykyta Smyrnov below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 11-2

Point 52 set 3, 11-2 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 63.3%

52 points played in total.

H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 7–6 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 6 of their 13 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Lazebnyi

Lazebnyi 1.50/Smyrnov 2.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

63.3%

Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Lazebnyi won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 23:37

63.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 3.4pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Lazebnyi

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-6 in 13

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lazebnyi 1602 vs Smyrnov 1506

Lazebnyi

Correct

both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lazebnyi 60% vs Smyrnov 40%

Lazebnyi

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lazebnyi 60% vs Smyrnov 30%

Lazebnyi

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Lazebnyi +2 · Smyrnov -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLazebnyi 1.50 / Smyrnov 2.50

Signal prob.63% / 37%

Edge (Lazebnyi)-3.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLazebnyi5wins

AwaySmyrnov5wins

6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLazebnyi71.4%5 of 7

AwaySmyrnov100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lazebnyi7Smyrnov3n = 10Lazebnyi took 7 of 10

S2Lazebnyi4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10

S3Lazebnyi9Smyrnov1n = 10Lazebnyi took 9 of 10

S4Lazebnyi4Smyrnov2n = 6Lazebnyi took 4 of 6

S5Lazebnyi1Smyrnov5n = 6Smyrnov took 5 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away550%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricLazebnyiSmyrnovL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.437.9+5.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLazebnyiSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 199 vs 427 / 88549.3%48.3%98 / 199 vs 427 / 885Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.3per match

Setka Cup · #13281246

Lazebnyi1.50

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite55% won 59 of 108

Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31

Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58

Smyrnov2.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 94 of 233

Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 117

Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79

Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Ruslan Lazebnyi vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.