Dmytro Shchegelskyi vs Yurii Parahailo 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Dmytro Shchegelskyi

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 5

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

1151141311––––

Yurii Parahailo

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 6

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 6

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%

Graded at full time

Yurii Parahailo to win

54.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 2.25 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Yurii Parahailo below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 13-11

Point 55 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Yurii Parahailo at 54.5%

55 points played in total.

H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 58–67 Yurii Parahailo Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 58 of their 125 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Shchegelskyi

Shchegelskyi 2.10/Parahailo 1.67

Hit

What we said

54.5%

Parahailo · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 2.25 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

What happened

3–0

Shchegelskyi won

The pickContradict

Sealed 08:59

Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 2.25 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

54.5%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 5.5pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Parahailo

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

58-67 in 125

Parahailo

Wrong

gap of 9 in 125, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Shchegelskyi 1674 vs Parahailo 1535

Shchegelskyi

Correct

both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Shchegelskyi 100% vs Parahailo 0%

Shchegelskyi

Correct

100pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Shchegelskyi 80% vs Parahailo 30%

Shchegelskyi

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Shchegelskyi +5 · Parahailo -6

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Parahailo) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Parahailo: form 0%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.10 / Parahailo 1.666

Signal prob.46% / 55%

Edge (Shchegelskyi)-2.1pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeShchegelskyi5wins

AwayParahailo5wins

5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeShchegelskyi40%2 of 5

AwayParahailo40%2 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Shchegelskyi5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly

S2Shchegelskyi6Parahailo4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10

S3Shchegelskyi4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10

S4Shchegelskyi3Parahailo6n = 9Parahailo took 6 of 9

S5Shchegelskyi3Parahailo1n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricShchegelskyiParahailoS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.842.4−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricShchegelskyiParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 910 vs 410 / 82351.2%49.8%466 / 910 vs 410 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match

Setka Cup · #13281093

Shchegelskyi2.10

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 5

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog37% won 67 of 183

Down 0–1, comes back23% 27 of 118

Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 63

Parahailo1.67

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 6

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite58% won 84 of 145

Up 2–0, closes it89% 48 of 54

Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86

Dmytro Shchegelskyi vs Yurii Parahailo 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Dmytro Shchegelskyi vs Yurii Parahailo 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.