Oleh Karpenko vs Andrey Troyan 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleh Karpenko

Home

2.38

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

511141214121311––

Andrey Troyan

Away

1.53

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%

Graded at full time

Andrey Troyan to win

63.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Andrey Troyan below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 14-12

Set 3 · 14-12

Set 4 · 13-11

Point 92 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 63.6%

92 points played in total.

H2H Oleh Karpenko 39–47 Andrey Troyan Oleh Karpenko has won 39 of their 86 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Troyan

Karpenko 2.38/Troyan 1.53

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

63.6%

Troyan · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Karpenko won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 07:57

63.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 1.6pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Troyan

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

39-47 in 86

Troyan

Wrong

gap of 8 in 86, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Karpenko 1570 vs Troyan 1695

Troyan

Wrong

both rated, 125 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Karpenko 60% vs Troyan 80%

Troyan

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Karpenko 60% vs Troyan 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Karpenko +1 · Troyan +4

Troyan

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Troyan: form 80%, the price implies 65%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKarpenko 2.375 / Troyan 1.533

Signal prob.36% / 64%

Edge (Troyan)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKarpenko4wins

AwayTroyan6wins

4 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKarpenko60%3 of 5

AwayTroyan80%4 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Karpenko5Troyan5n = 10split evenly

S2Karpenko5Troyan5n = 10split evenly

S3Karpenko3Troyan7n = 10Troyan took 7 of 10

S4Karpenko1Troyan6n = 7Troyan took 6 of 7

S5Karpenko3Troyan1n = 4Karpenko took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricKarpenkoTroyanK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.2−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKarpenkoTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 688 vs 481 / 98252.5%49%361 / 688 vs 481 / 982Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match

Setka Cup · #13281031

Karpenko2.38

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog43% won 79 of 184

Down 0–1, comes back30% 31 of 103

Down 0–2, comes back18% 11 of 62

Troyan1.53

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite69% won 185 of 270

Up 2–0, closes it92% 102 of 111

Up 1–0, closes it80% 142 of 177

Oleh Karpenko vs Andrey Troyan 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleh Karpenko vs Andrey Troyan 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.