Oleh Karpenko vs Volodymyr Bilobrov 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleh Karpenko

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

711119611117311

Volodymyr Bilobrov

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:22 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Oleh Karpenko to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Volodymyr Bilobrov below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-7

Set 5 · 3-11

Point 87 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Oleh Karpenko at 54.1%

87 points played in total.

H2H Oleh Karpenko 7–4 Volodymyr Bilobrov Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 4 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Karpenko

Karpenko 1.73/Bilobrov 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Karpenko · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Bilobrov won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:22

54.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Karpenko

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-4 in 11

Karpenko

Wrong

gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Karpenko 1568 vs Bilobrov 1577

Bilobrov

Correct

both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Karpenko 40% vs Bilobrov 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Karpenko 50% vs Bilobrov 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Karpenko +2 · Bilobrov -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Karpenko) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Karpenko: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKarpenko 1.727 / Bilobrov 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Karpenko)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKarpenko6wins

AwayBilobrov4wins

3 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKarpenko100%3 of 3

AwayBilobrov57.1%4 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Karpenko3Bilobrov7n = 10Bilobrov took 7 of 10

S2Karpenko8Bilobrov2n = 10Karpenko took 8 of 10

S3Karpenko5Bilobrov5n = 10split evenly

S4Karpenko3Bilobrov2n = 5Karpenko took 3 of 5

S5Karpenko2Bilobrov1n = 3Karpenko took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricKarpenkoBilobrovK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.333.9−0.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKarpenkoBilobrovBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 686 vs 87 / 19152.5%45.6%360 / 686 vs 87 / 191Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.7per match

Setka Cup · #13281034

Karpenko1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite63% won 77 of 122

Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42

Up 1–0, closes it82% 59 of 72

Bilobrov2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog34% won 30 of 89

Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 40

Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24

Oleh Karpenko vs Volodymyr Bilobrov 2-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleh Karpenko vs Volodymyr Bilobrov 2-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.