TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Tymofeev vs Volodymyr Bilobrov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7118111012––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched: 73.8% is still 73.8%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Bilobrov to win
73.8%
73.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Volodymyr Bilobrov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Volodymyr Bilobrov at 73.8%
59 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 0–6 Volodymyr Bilobrov Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2873.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 6.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Bilobrov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Bilobrov
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1594 vs Bilobrov 1572
Tymofeev
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 40% vs Bilobrov 20%
Tymofeev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 50% vs Bilobrov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev -2 · Bilobrov -3
Bilobrov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Bilobrov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bilobrov form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 3.75 / Bilobrov 1.25
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Bilobrov)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270730
Tymofeev3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Bilobrov1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 37 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTymofeev0wins
AwayBilobrov6wins
Bilobrov leads 6–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeevn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBilobrov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev1Bilobrov5n = 6Bilobrov took 5 of 6
S2Tymofeev0Bilobrov6n = 6Bilobrov took 6 of 6
S3Tymofeev0Bilobrov6n = 6Bilobrov took 6 of 6
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away583%
These 6 meetings
MetricTymofeevBilobrovT − BBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match22.334.7−12.4per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevBilobrovBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 521 vs 89 / 19554.1%45.6%282 / 521 vs 89 / 195Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BilobrovTymofeev 3.75/Bilobrov 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.8%
Bilobrov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bilobrov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 10 · 08:35O. Tymofeev2578100V. Bilobrov341111123
LOct 3 · 05:30O. Tymofeev209560V. Bilobrov331111113
LAug 13 · 15:00O. Tymofeev238690V. Bilobrov331111113
LJun 9 · 11:10O. Tymofeev156270V. Bilobrov331111113
LJun 7 · 07:05O. Tymofeev217590V. Bilobrov331111113
LMay 23 · 06:05O. Tymofeev30118471V. Bilobrov4291111113
O. Tymofeev10
LOct 10 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.4011611113O. Tymofeev2.75511661LOct 10 · 06:05O. Tymofeev2.2511980A. Troyan1.571311113WOct 3 · 11:30O. Tymofeev3.001111143V. Kryvenko1.3696120LOct 3 · 09:30I. Efimenko1.6791111133O. Tymofeev2.101155111WOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2.0061050O. Tymofeev1.731112113WOct 3 · 06:30O. Tymofeev2.38817138113Y. Kovshun1.531115111192LOct 3 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.301111113O. Tymofeev3.409560WOct 1 · 09:29O. Tymofeev2.25741111113S. Hryhorenko1.5711118872LOct 1 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko1.7311511113O. Tymofeev2.00511791WOct 1 · 07:00O. Tymofeev2.38711513113Y. Kovshun1.53114111142
V. Bilobrov10
LOct 10 · 06:35A. Lobanov1.5712911163V. Bilobrov2.2510118141LOct 10 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.251511113V. Bilobrov3.7513360LOct 6 · 11:35V. Bilobrov2.3861080Y. Kovshun1.531112113WOct 6 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.447720V. Bilobrov2.631111113LOct 6 · 08:35V. Bilobrov3.407121091A. Troyan1.30111012113WOct 6 · 07:35A. Martyniuk2.75105100V. Bilobrov1.401211123WOct 6 · 06:05V. Bilobrov1.361111113S. Kyienko3.007870LOct 3 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.63119111172Y. Kovshun1.44311136113WOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov1.5312116882V. Bilobrov2.381031111113WOct 3 · 05:30V. Bilobrov1.301111113O. Tymofeev3.409560
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