Valerii Kolesnykov vs Yaroslav Kovshun 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Valerii Kolesnykov

Home

2.63

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

9111181161214113

Yaroslav Kovshun

Away

1.44

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%

Graded at full time

Yaroslav Kovshun to win

66.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 12-14

Set 5 · 11-3

Point 96 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 66.9%

96 points played in total.

H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 3–9 Yaroslav Kovshun Valerii Kolesnykov has won 3 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kovshun

Kolesnykov 2.63/Kovshun 1.44

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

66.9%

Kovshun · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kolesnykov won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 08:28

66.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 2.4pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Kovshun

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

3-9 in 12

Kovshun

Wrong

gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kolesnykov 1547 vs Kovshun 1608

Kovshun

Wrong

both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kolesnykov 20% vs Kovshun 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kolesnykov 40% vs Kovshun 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kolesnykov -4 · Kovshun +1

Kolesnykov

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kovshun: form 20%, the price implies 69%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKolesnykov 2.625 / Kovshun 1.444

Signal prob.33% / 67%

Edge (Kovshun)-2.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKolesnykov3wins

AwayKovshun7wins

4 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKolesnykov66.7%2 of 3

AwayKovshun85.7%6 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kolesnykov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10

S2Kolesnykov1Kovshun9n = 10Kovshun took 9 of 10

S3Kolesnykov2Kovshun8n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10

S4Kolesnykov4Kovshun2n = 6Kolesnykov took 4 of 6

S5Kolesnykov3Kovshun1n = 4Kolesnykov took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricKolesnykovKovshunKolesnykov − KovshunBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.339.9−5.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKolesnykovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 658 vs 342 / 64552.9%53%348 / 658 vs 342 / 645Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281027

Kolesnykov2.63

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog40% won 31 of 77

Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41

Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26

Kovshun1.44

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite60% won 117 of 195

Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58

Up 1–0, closes it79% 81 of 102

Valerii Kolesnykov vs Yaroslav Kovshun 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Valerii Kolesnykov vs Yaroslav Kovshun 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.