Radek Rose vs Jan Mecl Jr 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Radek Rose

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

61110121181311811

Jan Mecl Jr

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%

Graded at full time

Jan Mecl Jr to win

56.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingRadek Rose above · Jan Mecl Jr below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 13-11

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 101 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 56.6%

101 points played in total.

H2H Radek Rose 7–6 Jan Mecl Jr Jan Mecl Jr has won 6 of their 13 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mecl Jr

Rose 2.10/Mecl Jr 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.6%

Mecl Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Mecl Jr won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:55

56.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 3.4pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Mecl Jr

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-6 in 13

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Rose 1702 vs Mecl Jr 1819

Mecl Jr

Correct

both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Rose 60% vs Mecl Jr 80%

Mecl Jr

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Rose 50% vs Mecl Jr 80%

Mecl Jr

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Rose -2 · Mecl Jr -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Mecl Jr) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Mecl Jr: form 80%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRose 2.10 / Mecl Jr 1.666

Signal prob.43% / 57%

Edge (Mecl Jr)-3.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRose6wins

AwayMecl Jr4wins

2 of 10 to a deciderRose leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeRose85.7%6 of 7

AwayMecl Jr100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rose7Mecl Jr3n = 10Rose took 7 of 10

S2Rose4Mecl Jr6n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10

S3Rose4Mecl Jr6n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10

S4Rose2Mecl Jr3n = 5Mecl Jr took 3 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricRoseMecl JrR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.335.6+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricRoseMecl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 345 vs 377 / 72446.4%52.1%160 / 345 vs 377 / 724Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.140.1per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280368

Rose2.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 06)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog30% won 18 of 61

Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 34

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25

Mecl Jr1.67

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

90%takes the first set · 9 of 10

As favourite60% won 129 of 216

Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72

Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 121

Radek Rose vs Jan Mecl Jr 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Radek Rose vs Jan Mecl Jr 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.