Jan Mecl Jr vs Jiri Ruzicka 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Mecl Jr

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

51116144111012––

Jiri Ruzicka

Away

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%

Graded at full time

Jan Mecl Jr to win

59.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJan Mecl Jr above · Jiri Ruzicka below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 16-14

Set 3 · 4-11

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 83 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Jan Mecl Jr at 59.7%

83 points played in total.

H2H Jan Mecl Jr 41–17 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 17 of their 58 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Mecl Jr

Mecl Jr 1.61/Ruzicka 2.20

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

59.7%

Mecl Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Ruzicka won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 18:54

59.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 2.2pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Mecl Jr

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

41-17 in 58

Mecl Jr

Wrong

gap of 24 in 58, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mecl Jr 1827 vs Ruzicka 1741

Mecl Jr

Wrong

both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mecl Jr 80% vs Ruzicka 20%

Mecl Jr

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mecl Jr 80% vs Ruzicka 40%

Mecl Jr

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mecl Jr +1 · Ruzicka +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Mecl Jr) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Ruzicka: form 20%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMecl Jr 1.615 / Ruzicka 2.20

Signal prob.60% / 40%

Edge (Mecl Jr)-2.2pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 5h before this match

Mecl Jr beat Ruzicka 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMecl Jr7wins

AwayRuzicka3wins

2 of 10 to a deciderMecl Jr leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMecl Jr83.3%5 of 6

AwayRuzicka50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mecl Jr6Ruzicka4n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10

S2Mecl Jr8Ruzicka2n = 10Mecl Jr took 8 of 10

S3Mecl Jr6Ruzicka4n = 10Mecl Jr took 6 of 10

S4Mecl Jr6Ruzicka2n = 8Mecl Jr took 6 of 8

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home550%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMecl JrRuzickaM − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.837.5+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMecl JrRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 725 vs 698 / 142352.1%49.1%378 / 725 vs 698 / 1423Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.8per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280369

Mecl Jr1.61

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

100%takes the first set · 10 of 10

As favourite60% won 129 of 216

Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72

Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 121

Ruzicka2.20

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 132 of 331

Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 208

Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 109

Jan Mecl Jr vs Jiri Ruzicka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Mecl Jr vs Jiri Ruzicka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.