Jiri Ruzicka vs Radim Urbaniec 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Jiri Ruzicka

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 5

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 5

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1311611115114––

Radim Urbaniec

Away

2.75

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:57 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%

Graded at full time

Jiri Ruzicka to win

68.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 2.75 · Lost

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Radim Urbaniec below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 72 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 68.3%

72 points played in total.

H2H Jiri Ruzicka 54–28 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 28 of their 82 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Urbaniec

Ruzicka 1.40/Urbaniec 2.75

Miss

What we said

68.3%

Ruzicka · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 2.75 · Lost

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

What happened

3–1

Ruzicka won

The pick

Sealed 17:57

Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 2.75 · Lost

68.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 3.1pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Ruzicka

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

54-28 in 82

Ruzicka

Correct

gap of 26 in 82, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Ruzicka 1731 vs Urbaniec 1663

Ruzicka

Correct

both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Ruzicka 0% vs Urbaniec 40%

Urbaniec

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Ruzicka 30% vs Urbaniec 30%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Ruzicka -5 · Urbaniec +2

Ruzicka

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Ruzicka: form 0%, the price implies 71%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRuzicka 1.40 / Urbaniec 2.75

Signal prob.68% / 32%

Edge (Ruzicka)-3.1pp (anti-value)

They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match

Urbaniec beat Ruzicka 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRuzicka9wins

AwayUrbaniec1wins

2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeRuzicka85.7%6 of 7

AwayUrbaniec0%0 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Ruzicka7Urbaniec3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10

S2Ruzicka8Urbaniec2n = 10Ruzicka took 8 of 10

S3Ruzicka5Urbaniec5n = 10split evenly

S4Ruzicka8Urbaniec1n = 9Ruzicka took 8 of 9

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home770%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricRuzickaUrbaniecR − UBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.334.8+8.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricRuzickaUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime697 / 1422 vs 695 / 137149%50.7%697 / 1422 vs 695 / 1371Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.7per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280468

Ruzicka1.40

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 5

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite58% won 175 of 303

Up 2–0, closes it95% 98 of 103

Up 1–0, closes it78% 133 of 171

Urbaniec2.75

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog39% won 186 of 474

Down 0–1, comes back22% 59 of 270

Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 152

Jiri Ruzicka vs Radim Urbaniec 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jiri Ruzicka vs Radim Urbaniec 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.