TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Simecek vs Radim Urbaniec 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101141311––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:04 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 3.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingJan Simecek above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 61 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Jan Simecek at 72.3%
61 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek 10–1 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 02:04Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 3.00 · Lost
72.3%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.1pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Simecek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Simecek
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1675 vs Urbaniec 1664
Simecek
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 0% vs Urbaniec 20%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 20% vs Urbaniec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek -8 · Urbaniec -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Simecek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 1.363 / Urbaniec 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Simecek)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268533
Simecek1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 29 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 18 of 27
Urbaniec3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 477
Down 0–1, comes back22% 60 of 271
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimecek9wins
AwayUrbaniec1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSimecek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecek83.3%5 of 6
AwayUrbaniec0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek6Urbaniec4n = 10Simecek took 6 of 10
S2Simecek8Urbaniec2n = 10Simecek took 8 of 10
S3Simecek6Urbaniec4n = 10Simecek took 6 of 10
S4Simecek7Urbaniec0n = 7Simecek took 7 of 7
S5Simecek2Urbaniec1n = 3Simecek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimecekUrbaniecS − UBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.832.1+9.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 240 vs 693 / 136648.8%50.7%117 / 240 vs 693 / 1366Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecSimecek 1.36/Urbaniec 3.00
Miss
What we said
72.3%
Simecek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 3.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Simecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 13:30J. Simecek331111113R. Urbaniec249780
WSep 23 · 10:30J. Simecek50911811113R. Urbaniec3511211742
WSep 23 · 09:30J. Simecek331111113R. Urbaniec197750
WSep 23 · 07:30J. Simecek331111113R. Urbaniec198740
WAug 27 · 22:30J. Simecek521411511113R. Urbaniec4416711732
WAug 7 · 13:29J. Simecek4211119113R. Urbaniec29681141
LAug 7 · 10:30J. Simecek4211661272R. Urbaniec452111110113
WAug 7 · 08:30J. Simecek45121111113R. Urbaniec33147751
WJun 13 · 23:00J. Simecek4671411143R. Urbaniec4211127121
WJun 11 · 13:30J. Simecek4211911113R. Urbaniec31711851
J. Simecek10
LOct 11 · 03:00O. Svacha1.82511115113J. Simecek1.8811021152LOct 11 · 01:30R. Wagner1.801111113J. Simecek1.916380LOct 11 · 00:00J. Simecek2.2539100M. Klimenta1.571111123LOct 10 · 23:00O. Svacha1.6711911113J. Simecek2.10611871LOct 2 · 12:58A. Barton1.8011911113J. Simecek1.91411991LOct 2 · 12:30A. Barton1.83115911113J. Simecek1.8331111952LOct 2 · 11:30J. Simecek2.5079100J. Ruzicka1.501111123LOct 2 · 10:30E. Mares1.251311133J. Simecek3.75112110LOct 2 · 09:30J. Ruzicka1.5591111113J. Simecek2.30116171WOct 2 · 08:30L. Jindrak1.5784111152J. Simecek2.25111145113
R. Urbaniec10
LOct 11 · 01:00M. Klimenta1.8012912113R. Urbaniec1.9110111041LOct 10 · 23:30R. Urbaniec2.00811751R. Wagner1.7311611113LOct 10 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.6131491192O. Svacha2.201112115113LOct 10 · 09:30R. Urbaniec1.7310380F. Pusch2.001211113WOct 10 · 08:30R. Urbaniec1.5012119113J. Louda2.501081161LOct 10 · 07:00R. Urbaniec1.57711761F. Pusch2.2511711113WOct 10 · 06:00A. Barton1.449127101R. Urbaniec2.63111011123LOct 9 · 16:58R. Wagner1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.917770WOct 9 · 16:30R. Wagner2.10118111172R. Urbaniec1.67211134113LOct 9 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.2051161162J. Mecl Jr1.61117117113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.