TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Oleksik vs Jakub Lysek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91110121012––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Oleksik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Oleksik above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 64 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Jan Oleksik at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Jan Oleksik 2–4 Jakub Lysek Jan Oleksik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0554.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oleksik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Lysek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oleksik 1350 vs Lysek 1300
Oleksik
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oleksik 60% vs Lysek 40%
Oleksik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oleksik 40% vs Lysek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oleksik +1 · Lysek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Oleksik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOleksik 1.727 / Lysek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oleksik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13278462
Oleksik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 04) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite24% won 6 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Lysek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 49 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOleksik2wins
AwayLysek4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLysek leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOleksikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLysek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oleksik1Lysek5n = 6Lysek took 5 of 6
S2Oleksik5Lysek1n = 6Oleksik took 5 of 6
S3Oleksik3Lysek3n = 6split evenly
S4Oleksik1Lysek5n = 6Lysek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricOleksikLysekO − LBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match40.840.2+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOleksikLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 90 vs 158 / 35050%45.1%45 / 90 vs 158 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OleksikOleksik 1.73/Lysek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oleksik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 27 · 20:39J. Oleksik391111891J. Lysek4413911113
LSep 27 · 19:10J. Oleksik341012481J. Lysek44121011113
WJun 7 · 19:10J. Oleksik518111110113J. Lysek3911551262
WMay 17 · 20:10J. Oleksik3851111113J. Lysek27116641
LDec 21 · 15:40J. Oleksik3811101071J. Lysek4051212113
LDec 14 · 15:10J. Oleksik4581111872J. Lysek47116811113
J. Oleksik10
LOct 11 · 19:10R. Benesz2.0051115183J. Oleksik1.7311513161WOct 4 · 21:25J. Oleksik2.25971111113M. Dolezal1.5711116542LOct 4 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.005121411113J. Oleksik1.731110121372WOct 4 · 19:15J. Oleksik1.80119711113P. Sturma1.9161111532WOct 4 · 17:45R. Benesz1.57711111172J. Oleksik2.25116713113LSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891LSep 27 · 19:40L. Krupnik Jr1.8311117113J. Oleksik1.83991161LSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481LSep 27 · 18:10J. Oleksik1.5333121122M. Dolezal2.381111109113LSep 13 · 21:23J. Oleksik1.859112101L. Krupnik Jr1.8511911123
J. Lysek10
WOct 11 · 18:40M. Dolezal1.617780J. Lysek2.201111113LOct 11 · 17:10R. Jancak1.5771111113J. Lysek2.25113761WOct 11 · 16:10J. Lysek1.8011911113J. Walek1.91611681LOct 11 · 14:40R. Jancak1.5311137113J. Lysek2.388111191WOct 11 · 14:10M. Sobota1.53118971J. Lysek2.3881111113LOct 10 · 13:10L. Krupnik Jr1.579111512113J. Lysek2.25115131492WOct 10 · 12:10M. Sobota1.91131080J. Lysek1.801512113WOct 10 · 11:10J. Lysek2.10811117123P. Sturma1.67115911102WSep 27 · 20:39J. Lysek1.7313911113J. Oleksik2.001111891WSep 27 · 19:10J. Lysek2.00121011113J. Oleksik1.731012481
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