TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Miroslav Dolezal vs Jakub Lysek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Dolezal to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Dolezal above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Miroslav Dolezal at 57.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Dolezal 1–1 Jakub Lysek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3257.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1333 vs Lysek 1315
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 60% vs Lysek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 50% vs Lysek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +2 · Lysek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.615 / Lysek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Dolezal)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13278388
Dolezal1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite36% won 4 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it50% 3 of 6
Lysek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 49 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDolezal1wins
AwayLysek1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDolezalLysekD − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.532.5+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 64 vs 159 / 35146.9%45.3%30 / 64 vs 159 / 351Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.61/Lysek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal3871011101J. Lysek4311128123
WSep 24 · 13:45M. Dolezal371511113J. Lysek2213630
M. Dolezal10
WOct 11 · 17:40M. Dolezal1.831311113R. Benesz1.8311290WOct 6 · 20:34D. Stefek1.44781191M. Dolezal2.6311117113LOct 6 · 19:40M. Dolezal2.108870D. Stefek1.671111113LOct 6 · 18:40M. Dolezal1.805780P. Sturma1.911111113WOct 6 · 17:40M. Dolezal1.731111113113L. Zustina2.0095131172LOct 4 · 21:25J. Oleksik2.25971111113M. Dolezal1.5711116542WOct 4 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.005121411113J. Oleksik1.731110121372LOct 4 · 18:45R. Benesz1.57137811133M. Dolezal2.251111118112WOct 4 · 18:15P. Sturma2.006960M. Dolezal1.731111113LSep 27 · 21:09L. Krupnik Jr1.91911118113M. Dolezal1.8011781172
J. Lysek10
WOct 11 · 18:10J. Oleksik1.73910100J. Lysek2.001112123LOct 11 · 17:10R. Jancak1.5771111113J. Lysek2.25113761WOct 11 · 16:10J. Lysek1.8011911113J. Walek1.91611681LOct 11 · 14:40R. Jancak1.5311137113J. Lysek2.388111191WOct 11 · 14:10M. Sobota1.53118971J. Lysek2.3881111113LOct 10 · 13:10L. Krupnik Jr1.579111512113J. Lysek2.25115131492WOct 10 · 12:10M. Sobota1.91131080J. Lysek1.801512113WOct 10 · 11:10J. Lysek2.10811117123P. Sturma1.67115911102LOct 10 · 09:40L. Krupnik Jr1.57891111113J. Lysek2.2511117652LOct 4 · 08:43J. Lysek1.67671111102L. Snr2.10111199123
Upcoming Matches
M. Dolezal
Nothing scheduled
J. Lysek
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