TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Sturma vs Miroslav Dolezal 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911611––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:09 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Miroslav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Patrik Sturma at 60.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 5–2 Miroslav Dolezal Miroslav Dolezal has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0960.5%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 10.5pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Sturma
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1341 vs Dolezal 1336
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 60% vs Dolezal 40%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Dolezal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Dolezal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Sturma) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.00 / Dolezal 1.727
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Sturma)+10.5pp
TT Cup · #13243203
Sturma2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 123 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back41% 53 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Dolezal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwayDolezal2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSturma leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma80%4 of 5
AwayDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma5Dolezal2n = 7Sturma took 5 of 7
S2Sturma4Dolezal3n = 7Sturma took 4 of 7
S3Sturma5Dolezal2n = 7Sturma took 5 of 7
S4Sturma1Dolezal2n = 3Dolezal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSturmaDolezalS − DBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match34.429.0+5.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 905 vs 26 / 5648.7%46.4%441 / 905 vs 26 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.435.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 2.00/Dolezal 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 4 · 18:15P. Sturma216960M. Dolezal331111113
WSep 24 · 17:15P. Sturma3911611113M. Dolezal25311471
WSep 24 · 15:45P. Sturma331111113M. Dolezal216960
WJul 28 · 21:05P. Sturma501111116113M. Dolezal4313741182
WJul 28 · 20:10P. Sturma331111113M. Dolezal206770
LJul 27 · 16:10P. Sturma31117491M. Dolezal3961111113
WJul 21 · 08:15P. Sturma341111123M. Dolezal2248100
P. Sturma10
LOct 4 · 19:15J. Oleksik1.80119711113P. Sturma1.9161111532LOct 4 · 16:40P. Sturma1.61111011752A. Strelec2.20312911113WOct 4 · 16:15A. Strelec3.004740P. Sturma1.361111113WOct 4 · 15:15P. Sturma2.25181211113P. Jokiel1.572010991LOct 4 · 13:45V. Molin1.4481212113P. Sturma2.6311101041WOct 2 · 17:10F. Mandrysz9.10541281P. Sturma1.03111110113WOct 2 · 16:10P. Sturma1.4471111113N. Makara2.63113821LOct 2 · 14:40F. Mandrysz1.6151411123P. Sturma2.2011129101WOct 2 · 14:10J. Jnr2.20961271P. Sturma1.61111110113WOct 2 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.4011112101P. Sturma2.7581311123
M. Dolezal10
LOct 4 · 18:45R. Benesz1.57137811133M. Dolezal2.251111118112LSep 27 · 21:09L. Krupnik Jr1.91911118113M. Dolezal1.8011781172LSep 27 · 20:10M. Dolezal1.4071011101J. Lysek2.7511128123WSep 27 · 18:40L. Krupnik Jr1.67611681M. Dolezal2.1011811113WSep 27 · 18:10J. Oleksik1.5333121122M. Dolezal2.381111109113LSep 24 · 17:15P. Sturma1.5011611113M. Dolezal2.50311471LSep 24 · 15:45M. Dolezal2.006960P. Sturma1.731111113WSep 24 · 14:45M. Dolezal1.8311116113L. Zustina1.83471191WSep 24 · 13:45M. Dolezal2.001511113J. Lysek1.7313630WSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91311431
Upcoming Matches
P. Sturma
Nothing scheduled
M. Dolezal
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.