TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Jakub Lysek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 23-Czech 12 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111515131214119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 110 set 5, 11-9
110 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 19–9 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Krupnik Jr beat Lysek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik Jr 1.571 / Lysek 2.25
TT Cup · #13274473
Krupnik Jr1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 72 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Lysek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 48 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik Jr8wins
AwayLysek2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik Jr leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik Jr100%7 of 7
AwayLysek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik Jr7Lysek3n = 10Krupnik Jr took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik Jr5Lysek5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik Jr3Lysek7n = 10Lysek took 7 of 10
S4Krupnik Jr6Lysek2n = 8Krupnik Jr took 6 of 8
S5Krupnik Jr4Lysek0n = 4Krupnik Jr took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnik JrLysekK − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.435.4+6.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnik JrLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 499 vs 156 / 34553.1%45.2%265 / 499 vs 156 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Krupnik JrKrupnik Jr 1.57/Lysek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Krupnik Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 09:40L. Krupnik Jr50891111113J. Lysek4011117652
WSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr331111113J. Lysek215880
LSep 25 · 17:10L. Krupnik Jr2789100J. Lysek341111123
WSep 25 · 13:40L. Krupnik Jr4211146113J. Lysek375121191
WJul 14 · 17:45L. Krupnik Jr521191011113J. Lysek4451112882
LJul 10 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr31741191J. Lysek4111118113
WJun 25 · 12:45L. Krupnik Jr3811115113J. Lysek28641171
WJun 25 · 11:45L. Krupnik Jr4111118113J. Lysek26941121
WJun 22 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr501171011113J. Lysek4161112572
WJun 20 · 13:25L. Krupnik Jr50121179113J. Lysek42105111152
L. Krupnik Jr10
WOct 10 · 11:40L. Krupnik Jr1.831312113P. Sturma1.83111090WOct 10 · 10:40L. Krupnik Jr1.5351111113M. Sobota2.38119971WOct 10 · 09:40L. Krupnik Jr1.57891111113J. Lysek2.2511117652LOct 8 · 09:08O. Skvor1.22119119133L. Krupnik Jr4.00911511112WOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.80126951L. Krupnik Jr1.90101111113LOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 05:40O. Skvor1.361112113L. Krupnik Jr3.0051020WOct 6 · 17:10F. Mandrysz1.67881111L. Krupnik Jr2.1011118113WOct 6 · 16:10P. Sturma2.10118781L. Krupnik Jr1.6771111113LOct 6 · 15:10L. Krupnik Jr1.9181110121F. Mandrysz1.8011812143
J. Lysek10
WOct 10 · 12:10M. Sobota1.91131080J. Lysek1.801512113WOct 10 · 11:10J. Lysek2.10811117123P. Sturma1.67115911102LOct 10 · 09:40L. Krupnik Jr1.57891111113J. Lysek2.2511117652LOct 4 · 08:43J. Lysek1.67671111102L. Snr2.10111199123WOct 4 · 07:40J. Lysek1.73313413113L. Snr2.001111111172LOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113LOct 4 · 05:40J. Lysek2.001311111L. Stempak1.7311113133WOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek1.8071111113L. Snr1.91112991LOct 3 · 08:10J. Lysek2.00159951L. Stempak1.73131111113LOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781
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