TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Jakub Lysek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 23-Czech 12 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911117116115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:31 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Krupnik Jr @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Jakub Lysek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 64.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 18–9 Jakub Lysek Jakub Lysek has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:31Sent to Pro: Lukas Krupnik Jr @ 1.50 · Won
64.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
clears by 1.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krupnik Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Krupnik Jr
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik Jr 1377 vs Lysek 1291
Krupnik Jr
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik Jr 40% vs Lysek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik Jr 50% vs Lysek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik Jr -1 · Lysek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Krupnik Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik Jr 1.571 / Lysek 2.25
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Krupnik Jr)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13271303
Krupnik Jr1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 72 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Lysek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 48 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik Jr7wins
AwayLysek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik Jr leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik Jr87.5%7 of 8
AwayLysekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik Jr8Lysek2n = 10Krupnik Jr took 8 of 10
S2Krupnik Jr5Lysek5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik Jr2Lysek8n = 10Lysek took 8 of 10
S4Krupnik Jr6Lysek2n = 8Krupnik Jr took 6 of 8
S5Krupnik Jr3Lysek1n = 4Krupnik Jr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnik JrLysekK − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.736.5+5.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnik JrLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 496 vs 154 / 34252.8%45%262 / 496 vs 154 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Krupnik JrKrupnik Jr 1.57/Lysek 2.25
Hit
What we said
64.9%
Krupnik Jr · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Krupnik Jr @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–2
Krupnik Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr331111113J. Lysek215880
LSep 25 · 17:10L. Krupnik Jr2789100J. Lysek341111123
WSep 25 · 13:40L. Krupnik Jr4211146113J. Lysek375121191
WJul 14 · 17:45L. Krupnik Jr521191011113J. Lysek4451112882
LJul 10 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr31741191J. Lysek4111118113
WJun 25 · 12:45L. Krupnik Jr3811115113J. Lysek28641171
WJun 25 · 11:45L. Krupnik Jr4111118113J. Lysek26941121
WJun 22 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr501171011113J. Lysek4161112572
WJun 20 · 13:25L. Krupnik Jr50121179113J. Lysek42105111152
LJun 20 · 12:15L. Krupnik Jr531151211142J. Lysek51611144163
L. Krupnik Jr10
LOct 8 · 09:08O. Skvor1.22119119133L. Krupnik Jr4.00911511112WOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.80126951L. Krupnik Jr1.90101111113LOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 05:40O. Skvor1.361112113L. Krupnik Jr3.0051020WOct 6 · 17:10F. Mandrysz1.67881111L. Krupnik Jr2.1011118113WOct 6 · 16:10P. Sturma2.10118781L. Krupnik Jr1.6771111113LOct 6 · 15:10L. Krupnik Jr1.9181110121F. Mandrysz1.8011812143WOct 6 · 13:40D. Stefek1.5011751182L. Krupnik Jr2.50711115113WOct 5 · 12:38L. Krupnik Jr2.101111123J. Sindler1.6775100LOct 5 · 12:10L. Krupnik Jr2.25971161D. Stefek1.5711116113
J. Lysek10
LOct 4 · 08:43J. Lysek1.67671111102L. Snr2.10111199123WOct 4 · 07:40J. Lysek1.73313413113L. Snr2.001111111172LOct 4 · 06:40J. Lysek1.83951151M. Sobota1.8311116113LOct 4 · 05:40J. Lysek2.001311111L. Stempak1.7311113133WOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek1.8071111113L. Snr1.91112991LOct 3 · 08:10J. Lysek2.00159951L. Stempak1.73131111113LOct 3 · 06:40F. Mandrysz1.7311711113J. Lysek2.00711781WOct 3 · 06:10L. Snr1.83151011111J. Lysek1.8317129133LSep 30 · 16:38M. Sobota1.6191111123J. Lysek2.201138101WSep 30 · 16:10L. Zustina1.449111161J. Lysek2.6311131113
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