TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Pesout vs Simon Mezlik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 41 - B1 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911119811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Simon Mezlik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Petr Pesout at 55.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 4–1 Simon Mezlik Simon Mezlik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0355.7%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.2pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pesout
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Pesout
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1375 vs Mezlik 1319
Pesout
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 40% vs Mezlik 60%
Mezlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 70% vs Mezlik 50%
Pesout
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout +1 · Mezlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Pesout) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.727 / Mezlik 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pesout)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277181
Pesout1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 23 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Mezlik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 4 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePesout4wins
AwayMezlik1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPesout leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesoutn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMezlik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout1Mezlik4n = 5Mezlik took 4 of 5
S2Pesout3Mezlik2n = 5Pesout took 3 of 5
S3Pesout3Mezlik2n = 5Pesout took 3 of 5
S4Pesout3Mezlik1n = 4Pesout took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPesoutMezlikP − MBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match41.439.4+2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutMezlikBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 375 vs 10 / 2546.4%40%174 / 375 vs 10 / 25Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.633.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutPesout 1.73/Mezlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mezlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 10 · 15:35P. Pesout4291111113S. Mezlik33119581
WOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout46111311113S. Mezlik38815961
WOct 8 · 14:35P. Pesout531111911113S. Mezlik4613711782
LOct 7 · 17:04P. Pesout2612770S. Mezlik361411113
WOct 7 · 15:35P. Pesout40411113113S. Mezlik4411871172
P. Pesout10
WOct 11 · 09:15R. Hruby2.5061111101P. Pesout1.5011513123WOct 11 · 07:05P. Pesout1.571111113V. Kaisler2.257880LOct 11 · 06:05P. Pesout1.44139981R. Hruby2.63111111113LOct 10 · 17:35J. Horky2.109101111123P. Pesout1.67111278102LOct 10 · 16:05J. Horky1.67811118113P. Pesout2.1011841132WOct 10 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.10119581P. Pesout1.6791111113WOct 10 · 14:35P. Pesout1.5711127113V. Kaisler2.259101191WOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout1.73111311113S. Mezlik2.00815961WOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113WOct 8 · 15:35J. Vranca2.25117981P. Pesout1.5771111113
S. Mezlik10
LOct 11 · 09:45V. Kaisler2.0091111113S. Mezlik1.73116441WOct 11 · 07:35R. Hruby2.1015511722S. Mezlik1.671311811113LOct 11 · 06:35S. Mezlik1.50108111572V. Kaisler2.501211813113WOct 10 · 17:03S. Mezlik1.5311313113V. Kaisler2.382111181WOct 10 · 16:35V. Kaisler2.2531190S. Mezlik1.571113113LOct 10 · 15:35S. Mezlik2.10119581P. Pesout1.6791111113LOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LOct 8 · 17:40P. Pesout1.73111311113S. Mezlik2.00815961WOct 8 · 16:35S. Mezlik1.57611119113J. Vranca2.2511661162WOct 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.7351350S. Mezlik2.001115113
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