TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Andrii Romanenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111210411118211
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Andrii Romanenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 87 set 5, 2-11 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 17–25 Andrii Romanenko Iurii Hrekh has won 17 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2754.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Romanenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-25 in 42
Romanenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1746 vs Romanenko 1702
Hrekh
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Romanenko 40%
Hrekh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Romanenko 30%
Hrekh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +1 · Romanenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romanenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.909 / Romanenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Romanenko)-9.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276979
Hrekh1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 88 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 59
Romanenko1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 166 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it96% 86 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it82% 133 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh3wins
AwayRomanenko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRomanenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh100%3 of 3
AwayRomanenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh3Romanenko7n = 10Romanenko took 7 of 10
S2Hrekh5Romanenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrekh3Romanenko7n = 10Romanenko took 7 of 10
S4Hrekh2Romanenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhRomanenkoH − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.635.3−4.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhRomanenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 608 vs 333 / 62952.8%52.9%321 / 608 vs 333 / 629Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.91/Romanenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Romanenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 21:45I. Hrekh3671241122A. Romanenko511110118113
LOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh371081271A. Romanenko44121110113
WOct 8 · 04:35I. Hrekh4111118113A. Romanenko35891171
LOct 7 · 15:05I. Hrekh2611690A. Romanenko351311113
LOct 6 · 21:30I. Hrekh2112360A. Romanenko361411113
LOct 4 · 02:15I. Hrekh184680A. Romanenko331111113
WOct 1 · 04:35I. Hrekh341111123A. Romanenko2257100
LSep 30 · 12:05I. Hrekh315111051A. Romanenko4311912113
WSep 17 · 10:35I. Hrekh331111113A. Romanenko177460
LSep 16 · 13:35I. Hrekh29712100A. Romanenko371114123
I. Hrekh10
WOct 11 · 20:15I. Hrekh2.201111113I. Sukovatyi1.615850LOct 11 · 01:43I. Sukovatyi1.731111123I. Hrekh2.0095100WOct 11 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.5711811113B. Chaikovskyi2.25711581WOct 10 · 23:45I. Hrekh2.20141111113I. Sukovatyi1.611281321LOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh1.911081271A. Romanenko1.80121110113WOct 10 · 21:15I. Hrekh1.67111179113O. Pohonov2.1089111132LOct 8 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.446890V. Zharskiy2.631111113LOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2.0057130I. Sukovatyi1.731111153LOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50115681B. Chaikovskyi2.5081111113WOct 8 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671111113O. Pohonov2.107760
A. Romanenko10
WOct 11 · 20:45O. Rodin2.101210851A. Romanenko1.67101211113LOct 11 · 00:15A. Romanenko2.3812891182O. Pohonov1.531011118113LOct 10 · 23:15B. Chaikovskyi1.501211143A. Romanenko2.50108120WOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh1.911081271A. Romanenko1.80121110113LOct 10 · 20:45I. Sukovatyi1.731111157113A. Romanenko2.0086171192LOct 8 · 11:05I. Sukovatyi1.7311511123A. Romanenko2.004115101LOct 8 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.531115119113A. Romanenko2.3891751192WOct 8 · 08:35V. Zharskiy2.20611481A. Romanenko1.6111611113LOct 8 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501112113A. Romanenko2.5061080LOct 8 · 04:35I. Hrekh2.1011118113A. Romanenko1.67891171
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