TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Ihor Sukovatyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118115––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeIhor Sukovatyi to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Ihor Sukovatyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Ihor Sukovatyi at 55.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 8–14 Ihor Sukovatyi Iurii Hrekh has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1255.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sukovatyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Sukovatyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1745 vs Sukovatyi 1723
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Sukovatyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Sukovatyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -1 · Sukovatyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sukovatyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrekh form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 2.20 / Sukovatyi 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sukovatyi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276968
Hrekh2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 88 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 59
Sukovatyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 176 of 297
Up 2–0, closes it97% 100 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it82% 140 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh3wins
AwaySukovatyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSukovatyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh60%3 of 5
AwaySukovatyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh5Sukovatyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrekh5Sukovatyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrekh1Sukovatyi9n = 10Sukovatyi took 9 of 10
S4Hrekh3Sukovatyi2n = 5Hrekh took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhSukovatyiH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.337.0−1.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhSukovatyiBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 606 vs 310 / 57852.8%53.6%320 / 606 vs 310 / 578Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SukovatyiHrekh 2.20/Sukovatyi 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Sukovatyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 01:43I. Hrekh2495100I. Sukovatyi341111123
WOct 10 · 23:45I. Hrekh47141111113I. Sukovatyi351281321
LOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2557130I. Sukovatyi371111153
LOct 7 · 16:35I. Hrekh367118101I. Sukovatyi4111711123
LOct 6 · 23:00I. Hrekh32131180I. Sukovatyi391513113
LOct 3 · 23:15I. Hrekh4614771172I. Sukovatyi491211114113
WOct 1 · 06:05I. Hrekh361411113I. Sukovatyi2212730
WSep 30 · 13:35I. Hrekh43111110113I. Sukovatyi29961221
LSep 17 · 04:35I. Hrekh4613118952I. Sukovatyi511171111113
LSep 16 · 16:35I. Hrekh189630I. Sukovatyi331111113
I. Hrekh10
LOct 11 · 01:43I. Sukovatyi1.731111123I. Hrekh2.0095100WOct 11 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.5711811113B. Chaikovskyi2.25711581WOct 10 · 23:45I. Hrekh2.20141111113I. Sukovatyi1.611281321LOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh1.911081271A. Romanenko1.80121110113WOct 10 · 21:15I. Hrekh1.67111179113O. Pohonov2.1089111132LOct 8 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.446890V. Zharskiy2.631111113LOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2.0057130I. Sukovatyi1.731111153LOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50115681B. Chaikovskyi2.5081111113WOct 8 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671111113O. Pohonov2.107760WOct 8 · 04:35I. Hrekh2.1011118113A. Romanenko1.67891171
I. Sukovatyi10
WOct 11 · 01:43I. Sukovatyi1.731111123I. Hrekh2.0095100LOct 10 · 23:45I. Hrekh2.20141111113I. Sukovatyi1.611281321WOct 10 · 22:45I. Sukovatyi3.001111113O. Pohonov1.367960LOct 10 · 21:45B. Chaikovskyi1.61111111113I. Sukovatyi2.20139761WOct 10 · 20:45I. Sukovatyi1.731111157113A. Romanenko2.0086171192WOct 8 · 11:05I. Sukovatyi1.7311511123A. Romanenko2.004115101WOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2.0057130I. Sukovatyi1.731111153LOct 8 · 08:05I. Sukovatyi3.001191381O. Pohonov1.36131111113LOct 8 · 07:05V. Zharskiy2.3811116113I. Sukovatyi1.53641161LOct 8 · 05:35I. Sukovatyi2.0099100B. Chaikovskyi1.731111123
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