TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Bohdan Chaikovskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811115118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:44 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 59.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 20–11 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:4459.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Hrekh
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1761 vs Chaikovskyi 1761
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 40% vs Chaikovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Chaikovskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +1 · Chaikovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrekh form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.571 / Chaikovskyi 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Hrekh)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270721
Hrekh1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 167 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it99% 102 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it82% 132 of 161
Chaikovskyi2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 134 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh6wins
AwayChaikovskyi4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHrekh leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh75%6 of 8
AwayChaikovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh8Chaikovskyi2n = 10Hrekh took 8 of 10
S2Hrekh6Chaikovskyi4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S3Hrekh6Chaikovskyi4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S4Hrekh3Chaikovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhChaikovskyiH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.530.8+4.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 605 vs 433 / 83152.9%52.1%320 / 605 vs 433 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.57/Chaikovskyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 00:45I. Hrekh4111811113B. Chaikovskyi31711581
LOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh30115681B. Chaikovskyi4181111113
WOct 7 · 18:05I. Hrekh48111112143B. Chaikovskyi395814121
WOct 7 · 00:30I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi165740
WOct 3 · 20:15I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi124530
WSep 30 · 16:35I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi229760
LSep 17 · 07:35I. Hrekh331011481B. Chaikovskyi3912511113
LSep 16 · 18:05I. Hrekh32931191B. Chaikovskyi4211119113
WAug 20 · 06:35I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi174940
LAug 19 · 13:35I. Hrekh3911831162B. Chaikovskyi49811118113
I. Hrekh10
WOct 10 · 23:45I. Hrekh2.20141111113I. Sukovatyi1.611281321LOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh1.911081271A. Romanenko1.80121110113WOct 10 · 21:15I. Hrekh1.67111179113O. Pohonov2.1089111132LOct 8 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.446890V. Zharskiy2.631111113LOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2.0057130I. Sukovatyi1.731111153LOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50115681B. Chaikovskyi2.5081111113WOct 8 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671111113O. Pohonov2.107760WOct 8 · 04:35I. Hrekh2.1011118113A. Romanenko1.67891171WOct 7 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.50111112143B. Chaikovskyi2.505814121LOct 7 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.917118101I. Sukovatyi1.8011711123
B. Chaikovskyi10
WOct 10 · 23:15B. Chaikovskyi1.501211143A. Romanenko2.50108120WOct 10 · 21:45B. Chaikovskyi1.61111111113I. Sukovatyi2.20139761LOct 10 · 20:15B. Chaikovskyi1.5047100O. Pohonov2.501111123LOct 8 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5011117792O. Pohonov2.50391111113LOct 8 · 09:35V. Zharskiy1.731111611123B. Chaikovskyi2.00137118102WOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50115681B. Chaikovskyi2.5081111113WOct 8 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501112113A. Romanenko2.5061080WOct 8 · 05:35I. Sukovatyi2.0099100B. Chaikovskyi1.731111123LOct 7 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.50111112143B. Chaikovskyi2.505814121WOct 7 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53911911113A. Romanenko2.3811211862
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.