TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Ihor Sukovatyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121181113112––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:31 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeIhor Sukovatyi to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Ihor Sukovatyi below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 82 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Ihor Sukovatyi at 56.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 7–13 Ihor Sukovatyi Iurii Hrekh has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3156.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sukovatyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Sukovatyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1738 vs Sukovatyi 1718
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 20% vs Sukovatyi 80%
Sukovatyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 40% vs Sukovatyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -1 · Sukovatyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sukovatyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sukovatyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 2.20 / Sukovatyi 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sukovatyi)-5.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270582
Hrekh2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 87 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Sukovatyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 177 of 298
Up 2–0, closes it97% 99 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it83% 141 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh3wins
AwaySukovatyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSukovatyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh50%2 of 4
AwaySukovatyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh4Sukovatyi6n = 10Sukovatyi took 6 of 10
S2Hrekh5Sukovatyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrekh2Sukovatyi8n = 10Sukovatyi took 8 of 10
S4Hrekh2Sukovatyi3n = 5Sukovatyi took 3 of 5
S5Hrekh1Sukovatyi2n = 3Sukovatyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhSukovatyiH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.138.0−2.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhSukovatyiBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 603 vs 309 / 57652.7%53.7%318 / 603 vs 309 / 576Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SukovatyiHrekh 2.20/Sukovatyi 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Sukovatyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2557130I. Sukovatyi371111153
LOct 7 · 16:35I. Hrekh367118101I. Sukovatyi4111711123
LOct 6 · 23:00I. Hrekh32131180I. Sukovatyi391513113
LOct 3 · 23:15I. Hrekh4614771172I. Sukovatyi491211114113
WOct 1 · 06:05I. Hrekh361411113I. Sukovatyi2212730
WSep 30 · 13:35I. Hrekh43111110113I. Sukovatyi29961221
LSep 17 · 04:35I. Hrekh4613118952I. Sukovatyi511171111113
LSep 16 · 16:35I. Hrekh189630I. Sukovatyi331111113
WAug 31 · 00:45I. Hrekh45311119113I. Sukovatyi4611891172
LAug 20 · 05:35I. Hrekh247980I. Sukovatyi331111113
I. Hrekh10
WOct 11 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.5711811113B. Chaikovskyi2.25711581LOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh1.911081271A. Romanenko1.80121110113WOct 10 · 21:15I. Hrekh1.67111179113O. Pohonov2.1089111132LOct 8 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.446890V. Zharskiy2.631111113LOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2.0057130I. Sukovatyi1.731111153LOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50115681B. Chaikovskyi2.5081111113WOct 8 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.671111113O. Pohonov2.107760WOct 8 · 04:35I. Hrekh2.1011118113A. Romanenko1.67891171WOct 7 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.50111112143B. Chaikovskyi2.505814121LOct 7 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.917118101I. Sukovatyi1.8011711123
I. Sukovatyi10
WOct 10 · 22:45I. Sukovatyi3.001111113O. Pohonov1.367960LOct 10 · 21:45B. Chaikovskyi1.61111111113I. Sukovatyi2.20139761WOct 10 · 20:45I. Sukovatyi1.731111157113A. Romanenko2.0086171192WOct 8 · 11:05I. Sukovatyi1.7311511123A. Romanenko2.004115101WOct 8 · 09:05I. Hrekh2.0057130I. Sukovatyi1.731111153LOct 8 · 08:05I. Sukovatyi3.001191381O. Pohonov1.36131111113LOct 8 · 07:05V. Zharskiy2.3811116113I. Sukovatyi1.53641161LOct 8 · 05:35I. Sukovatyi2.0099100B. Chaikovskyi1.731111123LOct 7 · 18:35I. Sukovatyi1.50112117102V. Zharskiy2.50711611123WOct 7 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.917118101I. Sukovatyi1.8011711123
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