TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Chaikovskyi vs Andrii Romanenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181412––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Andrii Romanenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 67 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 64.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 55–25 Andrii Romanenko Andrii Romanenko has won 25 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:5864.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-25 in 80
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 30 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1762 vs Romanenko 1699
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 40% vs Romanenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 50% vs Romanenko 30%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +1 · Romanenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Chaikovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.50 / Romanenko 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270472
Chaikovskyi1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 107 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it79% 74 of 94
Romanenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 82 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi8wins
AwayRomanenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayRomanenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi6Romanenko4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi5Romanenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Chaikovskyi8Romanenko2n = 10Chaikovskyi took 8 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi7Romanenko1n = 8Chaikovskyi took 7 of 8
S5Chaikovskyi2Romanenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiRomanenkoC − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.635.1+7.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiRomanenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 829 vs 331 / 62552.1%53%432 / 829 vs 331 / 625Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.50/Romanenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi341112113A. Romanenko2461080
WOct 7 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi51911911113A. Romanenko3811211862
WOct 6 · 23:30B. Chaikovskyi4111811113A. Romanenko34811871
WOct 4 · 00:15B. Chaikovskyi3851111113A. Romanenko30118561
LSep 30 · 18:35B. Chaikovskyi501271011102A. Romanenko521011127123
WSep 29 · 22:30B. Chaikovskyi48871111113A. Romanenko3911112692
WSep 27 · 00:45B. Chaikovskyi4211812113A. Romanenko316111041
LSep 24 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi4561211792A. Romanenko491110611113
WSep 23 · 14:05B. Chaikovskyi4411814113A. Romanenko368111251
WSep 23 · 01:30B. Chaikovskyi331111113A. Romanenko189540
B. Chaikovskyi10
LOct 11 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.5711811113B. Chaikovskyi2.25711581WOct 10 · 21:45B. Chaikovskyi1.61111111113I. Sukovatyi2.20139761LOct 10 · 20:15B. Chaikovskyi1.5047100O. Pohonov2.501111123LOct 8 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5011117792O. Pohonov2.50391111113LOct 8 · 09:35V. Zharskiy1.731111611123B. Chaikovskyi2.00137118102WOct 8 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.50115681B. Chaikovskyi2.5081111113WOct 8 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501112113A. Romanenko2.5061080WOct 8 · 05:35I. Sukovatyi2.0099100B. Chaikovskyi1.731111123LOct 7 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.50111112143B. Chaikovskyi2.505814121WOct 7 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53911911113A. Romanenko2.3811211862
A. Romanenko10
LOct 11 · 00:15A. Romanenko2.3812891182O. Pohonov1.531011118113WOct 10 · 22:15I. Hrekh1.911081271A. Romanenko1.80121110113LOct 10 · 20:45I. Sukovatyi1.731111157113A. Romanenko2.0086171192LOct 8 · 11:05I. Sukovatyi1.7311511123A. Romanenko2.004115101LOct 8 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.531115119113A. Romanenko2.3891751192WOct 8 · 08:35V. Zharskiy2.20611481A. Romanenko1.6111611113LOct 8 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501112113A. Romanenko2.5061080LOct 8 · 04:35I. Hrekh2.1011118113A. Romanenko1.67891171LOct 7 · 19:05A. Romanenko2.381159111O. Pohonov1.5391111133LOct 7 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53911911113A. Romanenko2.3811211862
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