Oleksandr Naida vs Roman Gnoevoy 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksandr Naida

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

113911112611119

Roman Gnoevoy

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:48 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Roman Gnoevoy to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Roman Gnoevoy below

Set 1 · 11-3

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-2

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 84 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 55.8%

84 points played in total.

H2H Oleksandr Naida 127–126 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 126 of their 253 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Gnoevoy

Naida 2.10/Gnoevoy 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.8%

Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Naida won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 00:48

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Gnoevoy

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

127-126 in 253

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Naida 1531 vs Gnoevoy 1557

Gnoevoy

Wrong

both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Naida 80% vs Gnoevoy 20%

Naida

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Naida 60% vs Gnoevoy 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Naida +1 · Gnoevoy -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Gnoevoy) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Gnoevoy: form 20%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNaida 2.10 / Gnoevoy 1.666

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Gnoevoy)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNaida4wins

AwayGnoevoy6wins

4 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNaida42.9%3 of 7

AwayGnoevoy66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Naida7Gnoevoy3n = 10Naida took 7 of 10

S2Naida5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly

S3Naida5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly

S4Naida0Gnoevoy7n = 7Gnoevoy took 7 of 7

S5Naida2Gnoevoy2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricNaidaGnoevoyN − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.537.3+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNaidaGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 925 vs 428 / 85550.8%50.1%470 / 925 vs 428 / 855Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match

Setka Cup · #13276881

Naida2.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog44% won 86 of 195

Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 115

Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55

Gnoevoy1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite61% won 77 of 127

Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45

Up 1–0, closes it75% 52 of 69

Oleksandr Naida vs Roman Gnoevoy 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksandr Naida vs Roman Gnoevoy 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.