TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Gnoevoy vs Kostiantyn Hrynenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311711911119811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:18 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 57.4%
101 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 94–46 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 46 of their 140 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1857.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
94-46 in 140
Gnoevoy
Wrong
gap of 48 in 140, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1596 vs Hrynenko 1581
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 80% vs Hrynenko 40%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 70% vs Hrynenko 40%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy +2 · Hrynenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Gnoevoy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.666 / Hrynenko 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Gnoevoy)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261542
Gnoevoy1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 78 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Hrynenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 137 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back26% 45 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy7wins
AwayHrynenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy80%4 of 5
AwayHrynenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Gnoevoy7Hrynenko3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Gnoevoy7Hrynenko3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S4Gnoevoy2Hrynenko4n = 6Hrynenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyHrynenkoG − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.834.5+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 850 vs 423 / 89850.2%47.1%427 / 850 vs 423 / 898Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.67/Hrynenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy511011118113K. Hrynenko4112571162
LSep 18 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy26741141K. Hrynenko3811115113
LSep 7 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2781090K. Hrynenko341112113
WJul 28 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy371214113K. Hrynenko28101260
WJul 27 · 00:25R. Gnoevoy341211113K. Hrynenko2810990
WJul 8 · 13:25R. Gnoevoy4211146113K. Hrynenko304121131
WJul 6 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy331111113K. Hrynenko259790
LJul 1 · 15:55R. Gnoevoy371191071K. Hrynenko4281112113
WJun 30 · 21:35R. Gnoevoy4071111113K. Hrynenko35118971
WJun 30 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy511011118113K. Hrynenko4412951172
R. Gnoevoy10
WOct 8 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.531312133T. Ponomarenko2.381110110WOct 8 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy1.361111113O. Melashenko3.008310LOct 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy2.0011712872S. Abalmaz1.735111011113WOct 8 · 02:25K. Hrynenko2.2012571162R. Gnoevoy1.611011118113WOct 8 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.7311720R. Gnoevoy2.001311113WOct 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.5011118113T. Ponomarenko2.50481171LOct 7 · 22:25D. Derevynskyi1.679111011113R. Gnoevoy2.1011812862WOct 6 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.83116101142R. Gnoevoy1.83411129113LOct 6 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy1.91106110S. Abalmaz1.801211133WOct 6 · 00:55O. Naida2.001112491R. Gnoevoy1.7371411113
K. Hrynenko10
WOct 8 · 23:25K. Hrynenko1.73111177113O. Melashenko2.0075111142LOct 8 · 22:25O. Naida1.83111178113K. Hrynenko1.8398111142WOct 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73118891K. Hrynenko2.0081111113LOct 8 · 02:25K. Hrynenko2.2012571162R. Gnoevoy1.611011118113LOct 8 · 01:25K. Hrynenko2.2011411892T. Ponomarenko1.61611511113LOct 7 · 23:55K. Hrynenko2.38710111292D. Derevynskyi1.531112710113LOct 7 · 21:55K. Hrynenko1.8311960S. Abalmaz1.831311113WOct 7 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk4.50116811102K. Hrynenko1.17311112123LOct 7 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi1.61111110113K. Hrynenko2.20691261WOct 7 · 01:05D. Rehotun2.251011371K. Hrynenko1.5712611113
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