TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kostiantyn Hrynenko vs Oleksandr Melashenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117115711711114
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 85 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 54.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 42–37 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 37 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:1754.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrynenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
42-37 in 79
Hrynenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1581 vs Melashenko 1529
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 20% vs Melashenko 60%
Melashenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 30% vs Melashenko 50%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko -1 · Melashenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Hrynenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 1.727 / Melashenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Hrynenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261362
Hrynenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 76 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it90% 60 of 67
Melashenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 99 of 269
Down 0–1, comes back17% 28 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko4wins
AwayMelashenko6wins
Melashenko leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko100%3 of 3
AwayMelashenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko3Melashenko7n = 10Melashenko took 7 of 10
S2Hrynenko4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S3Hrynenko7Melashenko3n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S4Hrynenko2Melashenko4n = 6Melashenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoMelashenkoH − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.534.1−1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 898 vs 429 / 85847.1%50%423 / 898 vs 429 / 858Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoHrynenko 1.73/Melashenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 21:05K. Hrynenko331111113O. Melashenko249960
LOct 4 · 00:35K. Hrynenko357511121O. Melashenko4411118143
LSep 25 · 23:35K. Hrynenko4311711141O. Melashenko4713117163
LSep 20 · 00:35K. Hrynenko1910360O. Melashenko341211113
LSep 15 · 04:05K. Hrynenko175570O. Melashenko331111113
WSep 13 · 00:35K. Hrynenko4011117113O. Melashenko28551171
WSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko3961111113O. Melashenko25118241
LSep 9 · 13:55K. Hrynenko331151161O. Melashenko4113116113
WSep 6 · 00:35K. Hrynenko331111113O. Melashenko195590
LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko33471571O. Melashenko46111113113
K. Hrynenko10
WOct 9 · 00:25R. Gnoevoy1.6713791182K. Hrynenko2.101111119113LOct 8 · 22:25O. Naida1.83111178113K. Hrynenko1.8398111142WOct 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73118891K. Hrynenko2.0081111113LOct 8 · 02:25K. Hrynenko2.2012571162R. Gnoevoy1.611011118113LOct 8 · 01:25K. Hrynenko2.2011411892T. Ponomarenko1.61611511113LOct 7 · 23:55K. Hrynenko2.38710111292D. Derevynskyi1.531112710113LOct 7 · 21:55K. Hrynenko1.8311960S. Abalmaz1.831311113WOct 7 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk4.50116811102K. Hrynenko1.17311112123LOct 7 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi1.61111110113K. Hrynenko2.20691261WOct 7 · 01:05D. Rehotun2.251011371K. Hrynenko1.5712611113
O. Melashenko10
LOct 8 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy1.361111113O. Melashenko3.008310WOct 7 · 03:05O. Melashenko1.361111187113D. Rehotun3.0088201172WOct 7 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.36125811113Y. Stepanchuk3.00101111772LOct 7 · 00:05O. Melashenko1.4485111152S. Pitsyk2.63111145113WOct 6 · 22:35O. Melashenko2.3881111113D. Derevynskyi1.53119661LOct 6 · 21:05O. Melashenko2.109960K. Hrynenko1.671111113LOct 4 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.831156121O. Gomilko1.8381111143LOct 4 · 01:35V. Lobas1.36151411113O. Melashenko3.001316621WOct 4 · 00:35O. Melashenko2.0011118143K. Hrynenko1.737511121WOct 3 · 23:35V. Kobets2.10991161O. Melashenko1.6711119113
Upcoming Matches
K. Hrynenko
O. Melashenko
Oct 9 · 01:25O. Melashenko3.75V. Panasenko1.25—Oct 9 · 02:55O. Melashenko2.75T. Ponomarenko1.40—Oct 9 · 03:55O. Melashenko1.73O. Naida2.00—Oct 9 · 21:35O. Melashenko1.53M. Marchuk2.38—Oct 9 · 23:35O. Melashenko1.83O. Gomilko1.83—Oct 10 · 01:05O. Melashenko1.67V. Kobets2.10—Oct 10 · 02:05O. Melashenko2.75V. Lobas1.40—Oct 10 · 03:05O. Melashenko4.00Y. Krol1.22—
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