TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Gnoevoy vs Oleksandr Naida 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:26 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 50 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 56.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 126–126 Oleksandr Naida Dead even across their 252 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 01:2656.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
126-126 in 252
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1585 vs Naida 1495
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Naida 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Naida 40%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy -1 · Naida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Gnoevoy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.727 / Naida 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Gnoevoy)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260907
Gnoevoy1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 78 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Naida2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 84 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy6wins
AwayNaida4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy66.7%2 of 3
AwayNaida42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy3Naida7n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S2Gnoevoy5Naida5n = 10split evenly
S3Gnoevoy6Naida4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Gnoevoy7Naida1n = 8Gnoevoy took 7 of 8
S5Gnoevoy2Naida2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyNaidaG − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.439.5−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 851 vs 472 / 93150.2%50.7%427 / 851 vs 472 / 931Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.73/Naida 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 00:55R. Gnoevoy4371411113O. Naida361112491
WOct 5 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy331111113O. Naida279990
LOct 1 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy185580O. Naida331111113
WOct 1 · 00:35R. Gnoevoy44111111113O. Naida32136581
LSep 28 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy3031141112O. Naida45114118113
WSep 28 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy3911116113O. Naida31771161
WSep 24 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy47681111113O. Naida4711117992
LSep 23 · 00:35R. Gnoevoy46118611102O. Naida50711119123
WSep 22 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy5611111211113O. Naida51131310872
LSep 18 · 00:25R. Gnoevoy28721271O. Naida43111110113
R. Gnoevoy10
LOct 9 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.63121011842V. Panasenko1.441012911113LOct 9 · 00:25R. Gnoevoy1.6713791182K. Hrynenko2.101111119113WOct 8 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy1.531312133T. Ponomarenko2.381110110WOct 8 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy1.361111113O. Melashenko3.008310LOct 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy2.0011712872S. Abalmaz1.735111011113WOct 8 · 02:25K. Hrynenko2.2012571162R. Gnoevoy1.611011118113WOct 8 · 00:25V. Khamurda1.7311720R. Gnoevoy2.001311113WOct 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.5011118113T. Ponomarenko2.50481171LOct 7 · 22:25D. Derevynskyi1.679111011113R. Gnoevoy2.1011812862WOct 6 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.83116101142R. Gnoevoy1.83411129113
O. Naida10
WOct 9 · 03:55O. Naida2.0012116113O. Melashenko1.731061191WOct 9 · 00:55O. Naida1.5781112113T. Ponomarenko2.251191061LOct 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.407101111113O. Naida2.7511123792WOct 8 · 22:25O. Naida1.83111178113K. Hrynenko1.8398111142WOct 6 · 03:55O. Naida2.3811111133S. Abalmaz1.536811111LOct 6 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831211113O. Naida1.8310940LOct 6 · 00:55O. Naida2.001112491R. Gnoevoy1.7371411113WOct 5 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.2011119792O. Naida1.61991111113LOct 5 · 22:25O. Naida2.2541121462S. Skachenko1.571171112113LOct 5 · 03:55O. Naida2.109990R. Gnoevoy1.671111113
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