TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Panasenko vs Oleksandr Naida 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111012113117119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Panasenko to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Panasenko above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Volodymyr Panasenko at 66.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Panasenko 7–4 Oleksandr Naida Oleksandr Naida has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4066.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Panasenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Panasenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Panasenko 1557 vs Naida 1481
Panasenko
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Panasenko 0% vs Naida 60%
Naida
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Panasenko 40% vs Naida 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Panasenko -5 · Naida +2
Panasenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Panasenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPanasenko 1.40 / Naida 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Panasenko)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261611
Panasenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 37 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Naida2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 84 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePanasenko6wins
AwayNaida4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPanasenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePanasenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayNaida66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Panasenko7Naida3n = 10Panasenko took 7 of 10
S2Panasenko6Naida4n = 10Panasenko took 6 of 10
S3Panasenko5Naida5n = 10split evenly
S4Panasenko3Naida4n = 7Naida took 4 of 7
S5Panasenko2Naida2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPanasenkoNaidaP − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.734.0+4.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPanasenkoNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 85 vs 471 / 93051.8%50.7%44 / 85 vs 471 / 930Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PanasenkoPanasenko 1.40/Naida 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Panasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Panasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko507101111113O. Naida4211123792
WOct 2 · 00:25V. Panasenko4211119113O. Naida32571191
WSep 28 · 23:25V. Panasenko331111113O. Naida136340
WSep 24 · 23:25V. Panasenko51128119113O. Naida44101161162
WAug 26 · 00:35V. Panasenko45111112113O. Naida27241471
LAug 21 · 00:25V. Panasenko3831111672O. Naida48116911113
WAug 19 · 02:05V. Panasenko331111113O. Naida207580
LJul 30 · 23:55V. Panasenko32116781O. Naida3411111113
LJul 23 · 21:25V. Panasenko198560O. Naida331111113
LJul 21 · 23:35V. Panasenko4411115982O. Naida47591111113
V. Panasenko10
LOct 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.2811115392T. Ponomarenko3.50991111113LOct 7 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk1.73111611113V. Panasenko2.00518831LOct 7 · 02:25V. Panasenko2.2521161152V. Kovalenko1.57117115113LOct 7 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.8096150E. Rubtsov1.911111173LOct 6 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.836115111V. Krokhmal1.8311911133WOct 6 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.8311119113O. Mishchenko1.83971161WOct 2 · 03:25V. Panasenko1.401413113V. Khamurda2.75121160WOct 2 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.331111123O. Melashenko3.2546100WOct 2 · 00:25V. Panasenko1.4011119113O. Naida2.75571191LOct 1 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.83811761S. Abalmaz1.8311811113
O. Naida10
WOct 8 · 22:25O. Naida1.83111178113K. Hrynenko1.8398111142WOct 6 · 03:55O. Naida2.3811111133S. Abalmaz1.536811111LOct 6 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831211113O. Naida1.8310940LOct 6 · 00:55O. Naida2.001112491R. Gnoevoy1.7371411113WOct 5 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.2011119792O. Naida1.61991111113LOct 5 · 22:25O. Naida2.2541121462S. Skachenko1.571171112113LOct 5 · 03:55O. Naida2.109990R. Gnoevoy1.671111113LOct 5 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.5011212123O. Naida2.5061110101LOct 5 · 00:55O. Naida1.6111113892T. Ponomarenko2.20741111113LOct 2 · 00:25V. Panasenko1.4011119113O. Naida2.75571191
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