TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Urezchenko vs Oleksandr Badanin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711112118811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Badanin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Badanin at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 25–28 Oleksandr Badanin Yurii Urezchenko has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5254.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Badanin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-28 in 53
Badanin
Correct
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1162 vs Badanin 1156
Urezchenko
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 60% vs Badanin 40%
Urezchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 50% vs Badanin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -1 · Badanin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Badanin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 2.00 / Badanin 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Urezchenko)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276840
Urezchenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 40 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Badanin1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 31 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko4wins
AwayBadanin6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBadanin leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko57.1%4 of 7
AwayBadanin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko7Badanin3n = 10Urezchenko took 7 of 10
S2Urezchenko4Badanin6n = 10Badanin took 6 of 10
S3Urezchenko2Badanin8n = 10Badanin took 8 of 10
S4Urezchenko4Badanin3n = 7Urezchenko took 4 of 7
S5Urezchenko1Badanin2n = 3Badanin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoBadaninU − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.8−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 452 vs 150 / 31544.9%47.6%203 / 452 vs 150 / 315Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninUrezchenko 2.00/Badanin 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Badanin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 09:00Y. Urezchenko391161391O. Badanin4361115113
WSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko351111133O. Badanin2788110
LSep 1 · 10:13Y. Urezchenko123450O. Badanin331111113
WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko3711114113O. Badanin35781191
LJul 2 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko178540O. Badanin331111113
LJun 28 · 16:30Y. Urezchenko4088111122O. Badanin50111189113
LJun 22 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko4411861182O. Badanin45511117113
WJun 17 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko48111286113O. Badanin48910111172
LMay 29 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko371191071O. Badanin4391112113
WApr 28 · 10:34Y. Urezchenko3911116113O. Badanin31881141
Y. Urezchenko10
LOct 11 · 15:00R. Sveshnykov1.3611118103Y. Urezchenko3.00461121WOct 11 · 14:00V. Yarovyi2.382470Y. Urezchenko1.531111113WOct 11 · 12:30A. Danylov3.50611581Y. Urezchenko1.2811611103WOct 7 · 10:13Y. Urezchenko2.5014711113V. Matviichuk1.501211791LOct 7 · 09:00V. Kurliuk1.1012911113Y. Urezchenko6.501011891WOct 7 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.57179121052Y. Urezchenko2.2515111012113WOct 7 · 06:00V. Matviichuk1.401111261Y. Urezchenko2.7513511113LOct 7 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.611111113Y. Urezchenko2.205590LOct 2 · 10:29Y. Urezchenko3.00137611102V. Saakian1.361111119123LOct 2 · 09:00O. Badanin1.7361115113Y. Urezchenko2.001161391
O. Badanin10
LOct 11 · 17:06O. Badanin1.83961141V. Yarovyi1.8311119113WOct 11 · 14:30A. Danylov2.6310119101O. Badanin1.4412811123LOct 11 · 13:00V. Yarovyi1.80111172O. Badanin1.914470LOct 11 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.36111113143O. Badanin3.007915121LOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.3891111113O. Badanin1.53115791WOct 5 · 08:00O. Badanin1.251111113V. Hyriavyi3.756650LOct 5 · 06:30O. Badanin1.801211341A. Lysyi1.9114911113LOct 5 · 05:00O. Badanin2.3811127942M. Zavoloka1.533101111113WOct 4 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.10101090O. Badanin1.671212113WOct 2 · 09:00O. Badanin1.7361115113Y. Urezchenko2.001161391
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