TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Lukas Svoboda 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211411811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Svoboda @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 47 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Svoboda at 66.5%
47 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 3–8 Lukas Svoboda Ondrej Mezera has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 09:47Sent to Pro: Lukas Svoboda @ 1.50 · Won
66.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1571 vs Svoboda 1713
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 40% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Svoboda 70%
Svoboda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera +2 · Svoboda +3
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.50 / Svoboda 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Svoboda)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13276574
Mezera2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 123 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back31% 51 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 79
Svoboda1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera3wins
AwaySvoboda7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera33.3%1 of 3
AwaySvoboda71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera3Svoboda7n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S2Mezera6Svoboda4n = 10Mezera took 6 of 10
S3Mezera6Svoboda4n = 10Mezera took 6 of 10
S4Mezera2Svoboda6n = 8Svoboda took 6 of 8
S5Mezera1Svoboda3n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraSvobodaM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.1−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 808 vs 74 / 14448.1%51.4%389 / 808 vs 74 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaMezera 2.50/Svoboda 1.50
Hit
What we said
66.5%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Svoboda @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
0–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 11:15O. Mezera142480L. Svoboda331111113
LOct 10 · 12:20O. Mezera357711101L. Svoboda4211118123
LOct 10 · 09:45O. Mezera4361171182L. Svoboda50118119113
WSep 27 · 14:30O. Mezera491011116113L. Svoboda4212551192
LAug 31 · 15:15O. Mezera31119561L. Svoboda4291111113
LAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera33581191L. Svoboda4011117113
WAug 14 · 20:18O. Mezera3841112113L. Svoboda351151091
LAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera46121111392L. Svoboda50147711113
WJul 7 · 15:15O. Mezera331111113L. Svoboda216960
LJul 6 · 16:18O. Mezera51121169132L. Svoboda561091111153
O. Mezera10
WOct 11 · 10:15O. Mezera2.20481111113R. Pisa1.6111118482WOct 11 · 09:15O. Mezera2.2511911123L. Veigl1.577118101LOct 10 · 12:20L. Svoboda1.6111118123O. Mezera2.207711101LOct 10 · 11:15J. Senk1.7391111113O. Mezera2.00114481LOct 10 · 10:45O. Mezera2.2511114752M. Makara1.57771111113LOct 10 · 09:45O. Mezera2.3861171182L. Svoboda1.53118119113LOct 9 · 16:15A. Radkovsky1.801111113O. Mezera1.919560WOct 9 · 15:15O. Mezera2.38115811113A. Radkovsky1.5351111682LOct 9 · 14:15O. Mezera2.7511441192L. Rulc1.40611119113WOct 9 · 13:15O. Mezera2.1011114113M. Vyskocil1.67671171
L. Svoboda10
WOct 11 · 10:45L. Svoboda1.731111113L. Veigl2.005680WOct 11 · 09:45L. Svoboda2.00111178113R. Pisa1.7384111192WOct 10 · 12:20L. Svoboda1.6111118123O. Mezera2.207711101LOct 10 · 11:45L. Svoboda1.57811681M. Makara2.2511711113WOct 10 · 10:15J. Senk1.91171171192L. Svoboda1.80196117113WOct 10 · 09:45O. Mezera2.3861171182L. Svoboda1.53118119113LOct 9 · 20:53L. Svoboda2.257840L. Heinzl1.571111113WOct 9 · 19:45L. Heinzl1.571010111182L. Svoboda2.25121245113WOct 9 · 17:15J. Dolezal1.9154111182L. Svoboda1.80111175113LSep 27 · 16:30S. Rejent2.02131111113L. Svoboda1.70159461
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