TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Radovan Pisa 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411811118114118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:45 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Radovan Pisa @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 66.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 3–5 Radovan Pisa Ondrej Mezera has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:45Sent to Pro: Radovan Pisa @ 1.50 · Lost
66.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pisa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Pisa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1566 vs Pisa 1675
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 20% vs Pisa 0%
Mezera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 30% vs Pisa 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera +1 · Pisa -5
Pisa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.20 / Pisa 1.615
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Pisa)+4.2pp
Setka Cup · #13276481
Mezera2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 123 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back31% 51 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 79
Pisa1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 82 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it66% 59 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMezera3wins
AwayPisa5wins
5 of 8 to a deciderPisa leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezeran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPisa71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera1Pisa7n = 8Pisa took 7 of 8
S2Mezera4Pisa4n = 8split evenly
S3Mezera3Pisa5n = 8Pisa took 5 of 8
S4Mezera4Pisa3n = 7Mezera took 4 of 7
S5Mezera3Pisa2n = 5Mezera took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMezeraPisaM − PBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match41.441.5−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 806 vs 384 / 79548.1%48.3%388 / 806 vs 384 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaMezera 2.20/Pisa 1.61
Miss
What we said
66.1%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radovan Pisa @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 14 · 14:15O. Mezera4491111852R. Pisa46118511113
LAug 26 · 13:15O. Mezera4569111182R. Pisa46111167113
LAug 23 · 10:15O. Mezera198560R. Pisa331111113
LAug 17 · 16:24O. Mezera399111091R. Pisa4011612113
LAug 17 · 13:15O. Mezera31511871R. Pisa3611311113
WAug 11 · 13:45O. Mezera45511711113R. Pisa4211911652
WJul 25 · 11:45O. Mezera521181111113R. Pisa4171113822
WJul 23 · 15:45O. Mezera561391112113R. Pisa48151141082
O. Mezera10
WOct 11 · 09:15O. Mezera2.2511911123L. Veigl1.577118101LOct 10 · 12:20L. Svoboda1.6111118123O. Mezera2.207711101LOct 10 · 11:15J. Senk1.7391111113O. Mezera2.00114481LOct 10 · 10:45O. Mezera2.2511114752M. Makara1.57771111113LOct 10 · 09:45O. Mezera2.3861171182L. Svoboda1.53118119113LOct 9 · 16:15A. Radkovsky1.801111113O. Mezera1.919560WOct 9 · 15:15O. Mezera2.38115811113A. Radkovsky1.5351111682LOct 9 · 14:15O. Mezera2.7511441192L. Rulc1.40611119113WOct 9 · 13:15O. Mezera2.1011114113M. Vyskocil1.67671171LOct 5 · 16:23O. Mezera2.25711951A. Radkovsky1.5711911113
R. Pisa10
LOct 11 · 09:45L. Svoboda2.00111178113R. Pisa1.7384111192LOct 10 · 08:13L. Heinzl1.571211113R. Pisa2.2510890LOct 10 · 07:15R. Pisa2.007460L. Heinzl1.731111113LOct 10 · 06:15R. Pisa2.20711671M. Zelinka1.6111511113LOct 10 · 05:15R. Pisa1.834540L. Rulc1.831111113WOct 9 · 12:20L. Veigl1.61116115122R. Pisa2.20811711143WOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa2.1011115113L. Veigl1.67691181LOct 9 · 10:15R. Pisa1.539780J. Dolezal2.381111113WOct 9 · 09:15R. Pisa1.831118113T. Liska1.8391680WOct 8 · 12:44R. Pisa2.001111113L. Adam1.735980
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