TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Adam Radkovsky 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115511811116118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Radkovsky to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Adam Radkovsky below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Adam Radkovsky at 61.2%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 6–8 Adam Radkovsky Ondrej Mezera has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5961.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Radkovsky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Radkovsky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1586 vs Radkovsky 1632
Radkovsky
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 20% vs Radkovsky 40%
Radkovsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Radkovsky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -1 · Radkovsky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Radkovsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radkovsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.375 / Radkovsky 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Radkovsky)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265819
Mezera2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 122 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back31% 51 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 77
Radkovsky1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 66 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it77% 46 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera3wins
AwayRadkovsky7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRadkovsky leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera50%2 of 4
AwayRadkovsky83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera4Radkovsky6n = 10Radkovsky took 6 of 10
S2Mezera6Radkovsky4n = 10Mezera took 6 of 10
S3Mezera1Radkovsky9n = 10Radkovsky took 9 of 10
S4Mezera3Radkovsky5n = 8Radkovsky took 5 of 8
S5Mezera2Radkovsky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraRadkovskyM − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.942.1−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraRadkovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 803 vs 171 / 31148.4%55%389 / 803 vs 171 / 311Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RadkovskyMezera 2.38/Radkovsky 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Radkovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mezera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 16:23O. Mezera32711951A. Radkovsky4211911113
LOct 5 · 15:15O. Mezera4171151172A. Radkovsky41117111113
LSep 3 · 13:15O. Mezera186660A. Radkovsky331111113
LAug 31 · 16:21O. Mezera315115101A. Radkovsky4311911123
WAug 31 · 13:45O. Mezera42111145113A. Radkovsky4797111192
LAug 17 · 14:15O. Mezera301154101A. Radkovsky4061111123
LJul 26 · 16:25O. Mezera521111101192A. Radkovsky53981213113
LJul 26 · 13:15O. Mezera209650A. Radkovsky331111113
WJul 3 · 12:44O. Mezera52981111133A. Radkovsky50111189112
WJul 3 · 09:15O. Mezera4111115143A. Radkovsky399711121
O. Mezera10
LOct 9 · 16:15A. Radkovsky1.801111113O. Mezera1.919560LOct 9 · 14:15O. Mezera2.7511441192L. Rulc1.40611119113WOct 9 · 13:15O. Mezera2.1011114113M. Vyskocil1.67671171LOct 5 · 16:23O. Mezera2.25711951A. Radkovsky1.5711911113LOct 5 · 15:15A. Radkovsky1.61117111113O. Mezera2.2071151172LOct 5 · 14:45O. Mezera2.00612861S. Rejent1.73111011113WOct 5 · 13:45O. Mezera2.10511911113V. Grubr1.6711711892LOct 4 · 20:48L. Veigl1.671381112113O. Mezera2.10151161072WOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:45O. Mezera2.207121011102L. Veigl1.611110129123
A. Radkovsky10
WOct 9 · 16:15A. Radkovsky1.801111113O. Mezera1.919560WOct 9 · 14:45A. Radkovsky2.38119114113M. Vyskocil1.5351171172WOct 9 · 13:45A. Radkovsky1.83129116113L. Rulc1.83101191172LOct 8 · 12:15A. Radkovsky2.107580M. Stibor1.671111113WOct 8 · 11:15M. Stibor1.80761181A. Radkovsky1.9111115113LOct 8 · 10:45A. Radkovsky2.2511691192R. Pisa1.57511116113LOct 8 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.1012612131L. Adam1.67101114153WOct 5 · 16:23O. Mezera2.25711951A. Radkovsky1.5711911113WOct 5 · 15:15A. Radkovsky1.61117111113O. Mezera2.2071151172LOct 5 · 14:15A. Radkovsky2.10118891V. Grubr1.6771111113
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