TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Radkovsky vs Ondrej Mezera 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117711115111117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Radkovsky to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Radkovsky above · Ondrej Mezera below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 82 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Adam Radkovsky at 57.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Adam Radkovsky 6–6 Ondrej Mezera Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Radkovsky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Radkovsky 1618 vs Mezera 1602
Radkovsky
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Radkovsky 40% vs Mezera 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Radkovsky 20% vs Mezera 40%
Mezera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Radkovsky -3 · Mezera -1
Radkovsky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Radkovsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radkovsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRadkovsky 1.615 / Mezera 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Radkovsky)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245463
Radkovsky1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 64 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Mezera2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 122 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back31% 51 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back18% 14 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRadkovsky6wins
AwayMezera4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRadkovsky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRadkovsky80%4 of 5
AwayMezera60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Radkovsky5Mezera5n = 10split evenly
S2Radkovsky5Mezera5n = 10split evenly
S3Radkovsky8Mezera2n = 10Radkovsky took 8 of 10
S4Radkovsky4Mezera4n = 8split evenly
S5Radkovsky2Mezera2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRadkovskyMezeraR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.037.6+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRadkovskyMezeraBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 312 vs 394 / 80955.5%48.7%173 / 312 vs 394 / 809Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RadkovskyRadkovsky 1.61/Mezera 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Radkovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Radkovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 13:15A. Radkovsky331111113O. Mezera186660
WAug 31 · 16:21A. Radkovsky4311911123O. Mezera315115101
LAug 31 · 13:45A. Radkovsky4797111192O. Mezera42111145113
WAug 17 · 14:15A. Radkovsky4061111123O. Mezera301154101
WJul 26 · 16:25A. Radkovsky53981213113O. Mezera521111101192
WJul 26 · 13:15A. Radkovsky331111113O. Mezera209650
LJul 3 · 12:44A. Radkovsky50111189112O. Mezera52981111133
LJul 3 · 09:15A. Radkovsky399711121O. Mezera4111115143
WJul 2 · 13:15A. Radkovsky50121188113O. Mezera49109111182
LJun 8 · 16:58A. Radkovsky32671181O. Mezera4111118113
A. Radkovsky10
WOct 5 · 16:23O. Mezera2.25711951A. Radkovsky1.5711911113LOct 5 · 14:15A. Radkovsky2.10118891V. Grubr1.6771111113LOct 5 · 13:15A. Radkovsky2.254570S. Rejent1.571111113LSep 28 · 16:23A. Radkovsky2.10117991M. Makara1.6741111113WSep 28 · 15:45L. Heinzl1.44118911102A. Radkovsky2.63811118123WSep 28 · 14:45M. Makara1.61119111152A. Radkovsky2.20131172113LSep 28 · 13:15S. Rejent1.7311711123A. Radkovsky2.008118101LSep 22 · 20:53V. Burylov1.5771111113A. Radkovsky2.25118471LSep 22 · 19:45A. Radkovsky2.1011511772V. Burylov1.67511811113LSep 22 · 18:15V. Grubr1.731111113A. Radkovsky2.009960
O. Mezera10
LOct 5 · 16:23O. Mezera2.25711951A. Radkovsky1.5711911113LOct 5 · 14:45O. Mezera2.00612861S. Rejent1.73111011113WOct 5 · 13:45O. Mezera2.10511911113V. Grubr1.6711711892LOct 4 · 20:48L. Veigl1.671381112113O. Mezera2.10151161072WOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:45O. Mezera2.207121011102L. Veigl1.611110129123WOct 4 · 17:45O. Mezera2.201211113S. Rejent1.6110990WOct 3 · 08:13M. Makara1.61101271182O. Mezera2.201210117113LOct 3 · 07:15J. Krames Sr1.33111111123O. Mezera3.251328101LOct 3 · 06:45O. Mezera2.20912118152L. Veigl1.611110711173
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