TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Chyzh vs Illia Fokin 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:22 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Chyzh above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 49 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Illia Fokin at 58.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Chyzh 2–2 Illia Fokin Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2258.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chyzh 982 vs Fokin 1026
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chyzh 40% vs Fokin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chyzh 50% vs Fokin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chyzh -3 · Fokin +2
Chyzh
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChyzh 2.25 / Fokin 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Fokin)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276417
Chyzh2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 10)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog26% won 14 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Fokin1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 10)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 66 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it72% 54 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChyzh2wins
AwayFokin2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChyzhn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFokin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chyzh1Fokin3n = 4Fokin took 3 of 4
S2Chyzh2Fokin2n = 4split evenly
S3Chyzh1Fokin3n = 4Fokin took 3 of 4
S4Chyzh2Fokin1n = 3Chyzh took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricChyzhFokinC − FBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match36.840.5−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChyzhFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 235 vs 160 / 31243.8%51.3%103 / 235 vs 160 / 312Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinChyzh 2.25/Fokin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 10 · 04:55P. Chyzh48611911113I. Fokin4711811892
WOct 9 · 18:55P. Chyzh4181111113I. Fokin35116991
LAug 11 · 07:25P. Chyzh32910130I. Fokin381112153
LAug 10 · 15:25P. Chyzh26118431I. Fokin4291111113
P. Chyzh10
LOct 10 · 10:25M. Treschetka1.401111113P. Chyzh2.757210LOct 10 · 09:25P. Chyzh3.00911981O. Maksymkiv1.3611911113LOct 10 · 08:25P. Chyzh2.75291111102V. Salivonchyk1.40111189123WOct 10 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.501613116113A. Nikolenko2.50181191182WOct 10 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.10611911113I. Fokin1.6711811892WOct 9 · 18:55I. Fokin1.44116991P. Chyzh2.6381111113WOct 9 · 17:25P. Chyzh3.40115114123V. Salivonchyk1.30711711102LOct 9 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.36111168143P. Chyzh3.00751111122WOct 9 · 13:25H. Oliynyk1.441191181P. Chyzh2.6391113113LOct 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.251111113P. Chyzh1.339980
I. Fokin10
LOct 11 · 13:25V. Vasyliev1.531161163I. Fokin2.38911851WOct 10 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv1.6171111582I. Fokin2.20114611113WOct 10 · 09:55I. Fokin2.251113123V. Salivonchyk1.57711100LOct 10 · 07:55A. Nikolenko1.53111178113I. Fokin2.3838111192LOct 10 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.507760LOct 10 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.10611911113I. Fokin1.6711811892LOct 9 · 18:55I. Fokin1.44116991P. Chyzh2.6381111113LOct 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko1.571111113I. Fokin2.257790WOct 9 · 14:55H. Oliynyk1.6136111272I. Fokin2.201111610113WOct 9 · 13:55I. Fokin2.7511511113V. Salivonchyk1.40811791
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