TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nikolenko vs Illia Fokin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113118711811119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:44 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nikolenko to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Anatolii Nikolenko at 64.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 30–17 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 17 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4464.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nikolenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-17 in 47
Nikolenko
Correct
gap of 13 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1063 vs Fokin 1001
Nikolenko
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 40% vs Fokin 20%
Nikolenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 50% vs Fokin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko -2 · Fokin -4
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Nikolenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 1.533 / Fokin 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Nikolenko)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270380
Nikolenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 87 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it89% 69 of 78
Fokin2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 34 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko7wins
AwayFokin3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNikolenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko80%4 of 5
AwayFokin40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S2Nikolenko7Fokin3n = 10Nikolenko took 7 of 10
S3Nikolenko6Fokin4n = 10Nikolenko took 6 of 10
S4Nikolenko5Fokin0n = 5Nikolenko took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoFokinN − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.432.2+5.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 683 vs 158 / 30947%51.1%321 / 683 vs 158 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NikolenkoNikolenko 1.53/Fokin 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Nikolenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nikolenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko331111113I. Fokin237790
WSep 23 · 15:55A. Nikolenko45661111113I. Fokin4511118962
WSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko4311128123I. Fokin3541011101
LSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko47111061192I. Fokin45812113113
WSep 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko4271311113I. Fokin341111751
WAug 19 · 18:55A. Nikolenko331111113I. Fokin239680
WAug 15 · 04:55A. Nikolenko331111113I. Fokin209470
LAug 14 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2256110I. Fokin351111133
WAug 11 · 08:55A. Nikolenko3941311113I. Fokin301111351
A. Nikolenko10
LOct 10 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.8011115113A. Nikolenko1.91991131LOct 10 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.501613116113A. Nikolenko2.50181191182LOct 10 · 05:25A. Nikolenko2.5012113642O. Maksymkiv1.501071111113WOct 9 · 17:55H. Oliynyk2.108760A. Nikolenko1.671111113WOct 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko1.571111113I. Fokin2.257790LOct 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.0081111882V. Salivonchyk1.73118711113LOct 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.917870M. Treschetka1.801111113WOct 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.251111113P. Chyzh1.339980LOct 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.36116101393A. Nikolenko3.00611121162WOct 2 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.2515111012123O. Maksymkiv1.331331214102
I. Fokin10
LOct 10 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.507760LOct 10 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.10611911113I. Fokin1.6711811892LOct 9 · 18:55I. Fokin1.44116991P. Chyzh2.6381111113LOct 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko1.571111113I. Fokin2.257790WOct 9 · 14:55H. Oliynyk1.6136111272I. Fokin2.201111610113WOct 9 · 13:55I. Fokin2.7511511113V. Salivonchyk1.40811791LOct 9 · 12:55M. Treschetka1.40121147133I. Fokin2.751081111112WOct 2 · 11:25I. Fokin1.2011158113O. Bolnyh4.339131141WOct 2 · 09:25B. Pyrtyk2.7512119101I. Fokin1.4014911123LOct 2 · 07:25O. Martynenko2.20111110113I. Fokin1.61981231
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