TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykolay Treschetka vs Anatolii Nikolenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119511113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Anatolii Nikolenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 70 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 26–31 Anatolii Nikolenko Mykolay Treschetka has won 26 of their 57 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:4954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-31 in 57
Nikolenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1116 vs Nikolenko 1072
Treschetka
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 60% vs Nikolenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 60% vs Nikolenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka +3 · Nikolenko +1
Treschetka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Treschetka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 1.80 / Nikolenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Treschetka)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271207
Treschetka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 75 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it84% 57 of 68
Nikolenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 43 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka7wins
AwayNikolenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTreschetka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka100%6 of 6
AwayNikolenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka6Nikolenko4n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S2Treschetka6Nikolenko4n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S3Treschetka8Nikolenko2n = 10Treschetka took 8 of 10
S4Treschetka3Nikolenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Treschetka2Nikolenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaNikolenkoT − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.137.7+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaNikolenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 924 vs 322 / 68449.5%47.1%457 / 924 vs 322 / 684Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaTreschetka 1.80/Nikolenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 14:25M. Treschetka331111113A. Nikolenko227870
LOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka195680A. Nikolenko331111113
LSep 30 · 18:25M. Treschetka48711118112A. Nikolenko52118911133
WSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka3711411113A. Nikolenko35911961
WSep 23 · 16:55M. Treschetka4211711133A. Nikolenko315114111
WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka54711119163A. Nikolenko52118811142
WSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka351112123A. Nikolenko29910100
WMay 25 · 09:25M. Treschetka331111113A. Nikolenko228590
WMay 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka50117138113A. Nikolenko48811111172
LMay 6 · 16:55M. Treschetka50111291172A. Nikolenko531310118113
M. Treschetka10
WOct 10 · 07:25M. Treschetka1.44111112113O. Maksymkiv2.638131041WOct 10 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.507760WOct 10 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.2511116113V. Salivonchyk1.57451141LOct 9 · 18:25M. Treschetka2.25311581V. Salivonchyk1.5711911113LOct 9 · 16:25H. Oliynyk1.5011811113M. Treschetka2.50711671WOct 9 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.36111168143P. Chyzh3.00751111122WOct 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.917870M. Treschetka1.801111113WOct 9 · 12:55M. Treschetka1.40121147133I. Fokin2.751081111112LOct 1 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.20121070V. Salivonchyk1.611412113LOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113
A. Nikolenko10
WOct 10 · 07:55A. Nikolenko1.53111178113I. Fokin2.3838111192LOct 10 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.501613116113A. Nikolenko2.50181191182LOct 10 · 05:25A. Nikolenko2.5012113642O. Maksymkiv1.501071111113WOct 9 · 17:55H. Oliynyk2.108760A. Nikolenko1.671111113WOct 9 · 16:55A. Nikolenko1.571111113I. Fokin2.257790LOct 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.0081111882V. Salivonchyk1.73118711113LOct 9 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.917870M. Treschetka1.801111113WOct 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.251111113P. Chyzh1.339980LOct 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.36116101393A. Nikolenko3.00611121162WOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113
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