TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Chyzh vs Oleh Maksymkiv 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119911811––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched: 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Chyzh above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 70.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Chyzh 2–6 Oleh Maksymkiv Pavlo Chyzh has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2070.0%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.4pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chyzh 1001 vs Maksymkiv 1113
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chyzh 80% vs Maksymkiv 20%
Chyzh
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chyzh 60% vs Maksymkiv 10%
Chyzh
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chyzh -1 · Maksymkiv -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChyzh 3.00 / Maksymkiv 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270621
Chyzh3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 13 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Maksymkiv1.36
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite67% won 121 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it91% 61 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 85 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeChyzh2wins
AwayMaksymkiv6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChyzhn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chyzh1Maksymkiv7n = 8Maksymkiv took 7 of 8
S2Chyzh2Maksymkiv6n = 8Maksymkiv took 6 of 8
S3Chyzh5Maksymkiv3n = 8Chyzh took 5 of 8
S4Chyzh1Maksymkiv3n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricChyzhMaksymkivC − MBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match36.240.6−4.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChyzhMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 233 vs 408 / 79344.2%51.5%103 / 233 vs 408 / 793Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivChyzh 3.00/Maksymkiv 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 19 · 16:55P. Chyzh4891411141O. Maksymkiv4511162163
LJul 2 · 13:55P. Chyzh2281040O. Maksymkiv341112113
WApr 27 · 05:55P. Chyzh331111113O. Maksymkiv239680
LApr 26 · 12:25P. Chyzh249960O. Maksymkiv331111113
LApr 13 · 06:55P. Chyzh27133110O. Maksymkiv391511133
WApr 12 · 18:25P. Chyzh547141111113O. Maksymkiv5211168892
LApr 5 · 15:55P. Chyzh346611111O. Maksymkiv4311118133
LMar 27 · 05:55P. Chyzh4881215852O. Maksymkiv5611101311113
P. Chyzh10
LOct 10 · 10:25M. Treschetka1.401111113P. Chyzh2.757210LOct 10 · 08:25P. Chyzh2.75291111102V. Salivonchyk1.40111189123WOct 10 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.501613116113A. Nikolenko2.50181191182WOct 10 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.10611911113I. Fokin1.6711811892WOct 9 · 18:55I. Fokin1.44116991P. Chyzh2.6381111113WOct 9 · 17:25P. Chyzh3.40115114123V. Salivonchyk1.30711711102LOct 9 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.36111168143P. Chyzh3.00751111122WOct 9 · 13:25H. Oliynyk1.441191181P. Chyzh2.6391113113LOct 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.251111113P. Chyzh1.339980WSep 19 · 10:25P. Chyzh1.401111113B. Pyrtyk2.754580
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 10 · 07:25M. Treschetka1.44111112113O. Maksymkiv2.638131041LOct 10 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv1.6725110V. Salivonchyk2.101111133WOct 10 · 05:25A. Nikolenko2.5012113642O. Maksymkiv1.501071111113LOct 8 · 10:25O. Maksymkiv3.508630O. Melnik1.281111113LOct 8 · 08:55O. Maksymkiv1.301011341O. Maslovskyi3.4012611113LOct 8 · 07:25O. Maksymkiv2.20118251V. Hel1.6191111113LOct 8 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv1.738560M. Dunas2.001111113LOct 8 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv2.759720S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113LOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113LOct 7 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.001111113O. Maksymkiv1.228630
Upcoming Matches
P. Chyzh
Nothing scheduled
O. Maksymkiv
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