TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Chyzh vs Vasil Salivonchyk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2119111181191012
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavlo Chyzh above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 66.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Chyzh 7–11 Vasil Salivonchyk Pavlo Chyzh has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2366.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Salivonchyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chyzh 1010 vs Salivonchyk 1130
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chyzh 80% vs Salivonchyk 60%
Chyzh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chyzh 70% vs Salivonchyk 30%
Chyzh
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chyzh +4 · Salivonchyk +1
Chyzh
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Salivonchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChyzh 2.75 / Salivonchyk 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Salivonchyk)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270458
Chyzh2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 13 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Salivonchyk1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it84% 37 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it69% 59 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChyzh4wins
AwaySalivonchyk6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChyzh75%3 of 4
AwaySalivonchyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chyzh4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S2Chyzh2Salivonchyk8n = 10Salivonchyk took 8 of 10
S3Chyzh6Salivonchyk4n = 10Chyzh took 6 of 10
S4Chyzh2Salivonchyk5n = 7Salivonchyk took 5 of 7
S5Chyzh3Salivonchyk2n = 5Chyzh took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChyzhSalivonchykC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.940.5−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChyzhSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 232 vs 318 / 60344.4%52.7%103 / 232 vs 318 / 603Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykChyzh 2.75/Salivonchyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 17:25P. Chyzh43115114123V. Salivonchyk46711711102
LAug 3 · 04:25P. Chyzh226970V. Salivonchyk331111113
WAug 2 · 18:55P. Chyzh517111111113V. Salivonchyk4111641372
LJul 20 · 04:25P. Chyzh29731181V. Salivonchyk4011117113
LJul 19 · 18:55P. Chyzh4457111292V. Salivonchyk461111310113
LJul 13 · 04:25P. Chyzh3711511372V. Salivonchyk49911711113
LJul 12 · 18:25P. Chyzh2111370V. Salivonchyk351311113
WJul 6 · 05:55P. Chyzh47111157133V. Salivonchyk44381111112
WJul 5 · 18:55P. Chyzh4111711123V. Salivonchyk368117101
LJun 8 · 10:25P. Chyzh2476110V. Salivonchyk351111133
P. Chyzh10
WOct 10 · 06:55P. Chyzh1.501613116113A. Nikolenko2.50181191182WOct 10 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.10611911113I. Fokin1.6711811892WOct 9 · 18:55I. Fokin1.44116991P. Chyzh2.6381111113WOct 9 · 17:25P. Chyzh3.40115114123V. Salivonchyk1.30711711102LOct 9 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.36111168143P. Chyzh3.00751111122WOct 9 · 13:25H. Oliynyk1.441191181P. Chyzh2.6391113113LOct 9 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3.251111113P. Chyzh1.339980WSep 19 · 10:25P. Chyzh1.401111113B. Pyrtyk2.754580LSep 19 · 08:55P. Chyzh1.118690M. Senyk6.001111113WSep 19 · 07:25P. Chyzh1.25511511123V. Sydorchuk3.75118114102
V. Salivonchyk10
WOct 10 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv1.6725110V. Salivonchyk2.101111133LOct 10 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.2511116113V. Salivonchyk1.57451141WOct 9 · 18:25M. Treschetka2.25311581V. Salivonchyk1.5711911113LOct 9 · 17:25P. Chyzh3.40115114123V. Salivonchyk1.30711711102WOct 9 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.0081111882V. Salivonchyk1.73118711113LOct 9 · 13:55I. Fokin2.7511511113V. Salivonchyk1.40811791LOct 9 · 11:55H. Oliynyk1.5711115113V. Salivonchyk2.25691151LOct 5 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk2.1027120H. Oliynyk1.671111143LOct 5 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.5751140O. Maslovskyi2.251113113LOct 5 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk3.009560O. Melnik1.361111113
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