TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Krejci vs Vladimir Cermak 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012117116114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 56.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 13–12 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:4856.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1598 vs Cermak 1668
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 80% vs Cermak 60%
Krejci
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 50% vs Cermak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci -1 · Cermak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejci form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 2.10 / Cermak 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Cermak)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275337
Krejci2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 40 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Cermak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 156 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it93% 81 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it79% 124 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrejci3wins
AwayCermak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci75%3 of 4
AwayCermak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Krejci2Cermak8n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S3Krejci4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Krejci1Cermak4n = 5Cermak took 4 of 5
S5Krejci2Cermak1n = 3Krejci took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrejciCermakK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.537.5−5.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 378 vs 572 / 110953.2%51.6%201 / 378 vs 572 / 1109Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakKrejci 2.10/Cermak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krejci won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 22:30R. Krejci115240V. Cermak331111113
WSep 12 · 02:58R. Krejci48119611113V. Cermak4371111592
LSep 11 · 22:30R. Krejci218490V. Cermak331111113
LSep 7 · 00:30R. Krejci269980V. Cermak331111113
WJul 19 · 23:00R. Krejci531110119123V. Cermak45912311102
LJun 1 · 22:30R. Krejci142570V. Cermak331111113
WMay 13 · 01:00R. Krejci331111113V. Cermak199550
LApr 24 · 01:00R. Krejci351175121V. Cermak4151111143
LJan 22 · 03:00R. Krejci4671411862V. Cermak531112811113
LJan 17 · 01:30R. Krejci38991191V. Cermak4211119113
R. Krejci10
LOct 11 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.67891213123R. Krejci2.1011111011102WOct 10 · 03:30R. Krejci2.601411113K. Brozhik1.4512890WOct 10 · 02:30R. Krejci2.251112711113M. Vedmoch1.5761411332WOct 10 · 01:30J. Prokupek2.105250R. Krejci1.671111113WOct 10 · 00:00R. Krejci1.531111113J. Plachy2.386880LOct 9 · 23:00K. Brozhik1.501111811113R. Krejci2.5013311672LOct 9 · 03:28P. Zmuda1.80281111113R. Krejci1.9111115782WOct 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.671111113R. Pavelka2.105260LOct 9 · 01:30P. Zmuda1.91121111113R. Krejci1.80143331LOct 9 · 00:00R. Krejci1.2271151142P. Fojt4.00116115113
V. Cermak10
LOct 11 · 21:28V. Cermak1.4061191152J. Stolfa2.75114111113WOct 11 · 20:00V. Cermak2.108111012113M. Volf1.67117121032WOct 11 · 19:30J. Stolfa2.75113491V. Cermak1.4031111113WOct 11 · 18:00V. Cermak2.101121311113M. Sobisek1.67111015732LOct 9 · 08:58V. Cermak2.0011511372J. Svoboda1.73711811113WOct 9 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.7361171372V. Cermak2.001191111113LOct 9 · 07:00D. Tuma1.91913139113V. Cermak1.801111111192LOct 9 · 06:30V. Cermak2.1041311392M. Sobisek1.671111511113LOct 8 · 03:30V. Cermak2.50611671M. Vizek1.5011611113WOct 8 · 02:30M. Vizek1.441011541V. Cermak2.6312411113
Upcoming Matches
R. Krejci
V. Cermak
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.