TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Krejci vs Michal Vedmoch 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161214711113113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:28 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 89 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 59.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 8–12 Michal Vedmoch Richard Krejci has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2859.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Vedmoch
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1585 vs Vedmoch 1602
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 60% vs Vedmoch 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 50% vs Vedmoch 70%
Vedmoch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci +2 · Vedmoch -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejci form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 2.25 / Vedmoch 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vedmoch)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13271778
Krejci2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Vedmoch1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 206 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it96% 102 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it80% 156 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrejci1wins
AwayVedmoch9wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci25%1 of 4
AwayVedmoch100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci4Vedmoch6n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S2Krejci4Vedmoch6n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S3Krejci2Vedmoch8n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S4Krejci5Vedmoch1n = 6Krejci took 5 of 6
S5Krejci0Vedmoch6n = 6Vedmoch took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrejciVedmochK − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.340.6−4.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 375 vs 734 / 138453.1%53%199 / 375 vs 734 / 1384Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochKrejci 2.25/Vedmoch 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krejci won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 01:00R. Krejci157620M. Vedmoch331111113
LSep 9 · 03:30R. Krejci177550M. Vedmoch331111113
WSep 9 · 02:30R. Krejci331111113M. Vedmoch177550
LAug 30 · 00:00R. Krejci4611881182M. Vedmoch43511115113
LAug 15 · 01:30R. Krejci45131131172M. Vedmoch511113115113
LAug 5 · 03:30R. Krejci49711118122M. Vedmoch42112411143
LAug 4 · 23:30R. Krejci4111971132M. Vedmoch47711117113
LJul 27 · 02:00R. Krejci177730M. Vedmoch331111113
LJul 21 · 02:30R. Krejci541013111192M. Vedmoch561211139113
LJul 2 · 03:30R. Krejci4681181362M. Vedmoch511171111113
R. Krejci10
WOct 10 · 03:30R. Krejci2.601411113K. Brozhik1.4512890WOct 10 · 01:30J. Prokupek2.105250R. Krejci1.671111113WOct 10 · 00:00R. Krejci1.531111113J. Plachy2.386880LOct 9 · 23:00K. Brozhik1.501111811113R. Krejci2.5013311672LOct 9 · 03:28P. Zmuda1.80281111113R. Krejci1.9111115782WOct 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.671111113R. Pavelka2.105260LOct 9 · 01:30P. Zmuda1.91121111113R. Krejci1.80143331LOct 9 · 00:00R. Krejci1.2271151142P. Fojt4.00116115113WOct 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.759690R. Krejci1.401111113LOct 8 · 21:00R. Krejci1.917470K. Kapras1.801111113
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 10 · 03:00J. Plachy2.501790M. Vedmoch1.501111113LOct 10 · 01:00J. Plachy2.501111123M. Vedmoch1.5093100LOct 9 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.5091111772J. Prokupek2.50116311113WOct 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.8011413113K. Brozhik1.917111161WOct 9 · 17:30M. Vedmoch1.801112113M. Vesely1.9061050WOct 9 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.831111113M. Vesely1.835770WOct 9 · 15:30T. Janata1.7311117882M. Vedmoch2.00751111113WOct 9 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.571111113J. Prokupek2.255960WOct 8 · 13:00J. Plachy2.2075100M. Vedmoch1.611111123LOct 8 · 12:30J. Trefny2.5012811113M. Vedmoch1.501011891
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.