TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Krejci vs Pavel Fojt 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711116511115411
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:56 and never touched: 80.9% is still 80.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Krejci to win
80.9%
80.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Pavel Fojt below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 82 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Richard Krejci at 80.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 13–1 Pavel Fojt Pavel Fojt has won 1 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5680.9%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 0.9pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Krejci
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-1 in 14
Krejci
Wrong
gap of 12 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1599 vs Fojt 1513
Krejci
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 40% vs Fojt 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 40% vs Fojt 20%
Krejci
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci +1 · Fojt -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Krejci) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fojt form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 1.222 / Fojt 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Krejci)-0.9pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13260000
Krejci1.22
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 55 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Fojt4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 60 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrejci10wins
AwayFojt0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKrejci leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci100%8 of 8
AwayFojtn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci8Fojt2n = 10Krejci took 8 of 10
S2Krejci8Fojt2n = 10Krejci took 8 of 10
S3Krejci8Fojt2n = 10Krejci took 8 of 10
S4Krejci5Fojt1n = 6Krejci took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrejciFojtK − FBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.527.8+11.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciFojtBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 368 vs 335 / 68853.3%48.7%196 / 368 vs 335 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrejciKrejci 1.22/Fojt 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.9%
Krejci · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fojt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 00:00R. Krejci48111178113P. Fojt4169111142
WAug 21 · 02:30R. Krejci3911116113P. Fojt31471191
WAug 3 · 00:30R. Krejci44111111113P. Fojt35138771
WJul 2 · 01:30R. Krejci331111113P. Fojt197660
WJan 12 · 00:00R. Krejci331111113P. Fojt155370
WNov 20 · 02:30R. Krejci331111113P. Fojt154650
WOct 30 · 02:00R. Krejci4611811163P. Fojt386117141
WOct 12 · 02:00R. Krejci4291111113P. Fojt27112951
WSep 8 · 02:00R. Krejci331111113P. Fojt216870
WAug 24 · 01:30R. Krejci44111012113P. Fojt367121071
R. Krejci10
WOct 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.759690R. Krejci1.401111113LOct 8 · 21:00R. Krejci1.917470K. Kapras1.801111113WOct 8 · 20:00M. Volf1.6711148692R. Krejci2.109121111113LOct 8 · 19:00K. Kapras1.831111510123R. Krejci1.83761112102LOct 8 · 18:30R. Krejci2.1071080M. Bittner1.671112113WOct 5 · 03:02R. Pavelka1.915750R. Krejci1.801111113WOct 5 · 02:30R. Krejci2.00911113113P. Zmuda1.7311881182LOct 5 · 01:30M. Chlebecek2.2011146113R. Krejci1.613121191LOct 5 · 00:00R. Krejci1.57861151R. Pavelka2.2511117113LOct 4 · 23:00K. Brozhik1.6711611113R. Krejci2.10411981
P. Fojt10
LOct 8 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.57101111113P. Fojt2.25127371WOct 6 · 02:58K. Darin2.387620P. Fojt1.531111113LOct 6 · 01:30P. Fojt1.44137971K. Darin2.63111111113LOct 6 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.6111118113P. Fojt2.20741191WOct 5 · 23:30J. Dedek1.57108111192P. Fojt2.25121199113LOct 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.73117911122J. Plachy2.00611115143LOct 4 · 01:30P. Fojt1.57611991J. Trefny2.2511611113LOct 4 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.57151479113P. Fojt2.251312111162LOct 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.501111113P. Fojt2.509970LOct 3 · 22:30P. Fojt1.73341181J. Plachy2.0011116113
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