TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Fojt vs Jan Trefny 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116911911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:10 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePavel Fojt to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Fojt above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Pavel Fojt at 60.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fojt 6–2 Jan Trefny Jan Trefny has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Fojt beat Trefny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:1060.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fojt
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Fojt
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojt 1531 vs Trefny 1552
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojt 40% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojt 60% vs Trefny 30%
Fojt
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojt -3 · Trefny +1
Fojt
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Fojt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojt 1.571 / Trefny 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Fojt)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233333
Fojt1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 81 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Trefny2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 34 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFojt6wins
AwayTrefny2wins
Fojt leads 6–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojt100%6 of 6
AwayTrefnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojt6Trefny2n = 8Fojt took 6 of 8
S2Fojt5Trefny3n = 8Fojt took 5 of 8
S3Fojt6Trefny2n = 8Fojt took 6 of 8
S4Fojt2Trefny1n = 3Fojt took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricFojtTrefnyF − TBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match34.830.8+4.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 699 vs 78 / 15349.1%51%343 / 699 vs 78 / 153Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FojtFojt 1.57/Trefny 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Fojt · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 4 · 01:30P. Fojt35611991J. Trefny3911611113
WOct 3 · 18:30P. Fojt341112113J. Trefny2891090
WAug 23 · 03:00P. Fojt341211113J. Trefny2010640
WAug 23 · 01:00P. Fojt361114113J. Trefny3091290
WJul 26 · 00:00P. Fojt3911611113J. Trefny35811881
WJul 25 · 18:30P. Fojt331111113J. Trefny217770
LJul 20 · 21:30P. Fojt28101260J. Trefny371214113
WJul 20 · 18:00P. Fojt3911611113J. Trefny36811981
P. Fojt10
LOct 4 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.57151479113P. Fojt2.251312111162LOct 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.501111113P. Fojt2.509970LOct 3 · 22:30P. Fojt1.73341181J. Plachy2.0011116113WOct 3 · 21:30T. Vinter1.35117481P. Fojt2.9021111113WOct 3 · 20:30M. Sedlak1.57951171P. Fojt2.2511116113LOct 3 · 19:30P. Fojt2.637630T. Vinter1.441111113WOct 3 · 18:30J. Trefny2.2591090P. Fojt1.571112113WSep 23 · 21:30P. Fojt1.431111113Y. Holovatiuk2.655450WSep 23 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.6311911672P. Fojt1.44811711113WSep 23 · 19:30P. Fojt1.831211113P. Klusacek1.8310730
J. Trefny10
LOct 4 · 02:30J. Trefny2.38811531M. Vedmoch1.5311711113WOct 4 · 00:00J. Trefny1.83121168113J. Plachy1.83106111132LOct 3 · 23:00J. Prokupek1.831111113J. Trefny1.837890WOct 3 · 20:58J. Trefny1.9113112133M. Sedlak1.8011511111LOct 3 · 20:00T. Vinter1.571212113J. Trefny2.25101040WOct 3 · 19:00M. Sedlak1.61127671J. Trefny2.20101111113LOct 3 · 18:30J. Trefny2.2591090P. Fojt1.571112113LSep 29 · 13:00J. Stolfa1.911111113J. Trefny1.806780LSep 29 · 12:30J. Stolfa2.10611811113J. Trefny1.6711611752LSep 29 · 11:30J. Trefny2.101011851M. Sobisek1.6712911113
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