TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Michal Vesely 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Vesely to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Michal Vedmoch @ 2.20 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Michal Vesely below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Michal Vesely at 56.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 2–6 Michal Vesely Michal Vedmoch has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 14:25Sent to Pro: Michal Vedmoch @ 2.20 · Lost
56.1%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
clears by 1.5pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vesely
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Vesely
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1609 vs Vesely 1499
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 80% vs Vesely 60%
Vedmoch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 70% vs Vesely 40%
Vedmoch
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +3 · Vesely +2
Vedmoch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vesely) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.833 / Vesely 1.833
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vesely)+1.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264723
Vedmoch1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Vesely1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVedmoch2wins
AwayVesely6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderVesely leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch66.7%2 of 3
AwayVesely100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch3Vesely5n = 8Vesely took 5 of 8
S2Vedmoch3Vesely5n = 8Vesely took 5 of 8
S3Vedmoch2Vesely6n = 8Vesely took 6 of 8
S4Vedmoch2Vesely2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricVedmochVeselyVedmoch − VeselyBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match31.935.2−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochVeselyBasisWin rate · lifetime731 / 1379 vs 71 / 13353%53.4%731 / 1379 vs 71 / 133Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.83/Vesely 1.83
Miss
What we said
56.1%
Vesely · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Michal Vedmoch @ 2.20 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 31 · 13:29M. Vedmoch46511711122M. Vesely49117116143
LAug 31 · 12:00M. Vedmoch2777130M. Vesely371111153
LAug 26 · 12:58M. Vedmoch36118891M. Vesely4071111113
LAug 26 · 12:30M. Vedmoch259970M. Vesely331111113
WAug 6 · 09:26M. Vedmoch331111113M. Vesely228680
LAug 6 · 06:30M. Vedmoch301031161M. Vesely3912115113
LJun 11 · 16:00M. Vedmoch161690M. Vesely331111113
WFeb 3 · 15:30M. Vedmoch4211119113M. Vesely29741171
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 9 · 15:30T. Janata1.7311117882M. Vedmoch2.00751111113WOct 9 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.571111113J. Prokupek2.255960WOct 8 · 13:00J. Plachy2.2075100M. Vedmoch1.611111123LOct 8 · 12:30J. Trefny2.5012811113M. Vedmoch1.501011891WOct 8 · 11:30M. Vedmoch1.571111810113J. Plachy2.2585111262LOct 8 · 10:30P. Zmuda1.7311811113M. Vedmoch2.00511321WOct 8 · 09:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Trefny1.9110630LOct 8 · 08:00M. Vedmoch1.53119881J. Trefny2.3891111113WOct 8 · 07:30J. Plachy2.389560M. Vedmoch1.531111113WOct 8 · 06:00M. Vedmoch2.381112143P. Zmuda1.53710120
M. Vesely10
WOct 9 · 15:00J. Prokupek2.00712121192M. Vesely1.731110144113WOct 9 · 14:30M. Vesely2.201312104123T. Janata1.6111101211102LSep 15 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.7311412123M. Vesely2.0061110101LSep 15 · 12:00J. Bresky2.20111155113M. Vesely1.6119111182WSep 15 · 11:00K. Darin2.759790M. Vesely1.401111113LSep 15 · 10:30M. Vesely1.8312131241P. Zmuda1.83141510113LSep 15 · 08:59M. Vesely1.448990J. Prokupek2.631111113LSep 15 · 08:00T. Varnuska2.10761111163M. Vesely1.67111169142LSep 15 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.91115119113M. Vesely1.8091131172WSep 15 · 06:30M. Vesely1.731111113J. Prokupek2.009580
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