Michal Vondrak vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Vondrak

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

12101012117113––

Sebastian Kasnik

Away

1.73

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:28 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Sebastian Kasnik to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Sebastian Kasnik below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-3

Point 76 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 54.1%

76 points played in total.

H2H Michal Vondrak 7–10 Sebastian Kasnik Michal Vondrak has won 7 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kasnik

Vondrak 2.00/Kasnik 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Kasnik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Vondrak won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 02:28

54.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Kasnik

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-10 in 17

Kasnik

Wrong

gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Vondrak 1654 vs Kasnik 1605

Vondrak

Correct

both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Vondrak 40% vs Kasnik 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Vondrak 70% vs Kasnik 70%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Vondrak -2 · Kasnik -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kasnik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kasnik: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVondrak 2.00 / Kasnik 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Kasnik)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeVondrak6wins

AwayKasnik4wins

5 of 10 to a deciderVondrak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVondrak85.7%6 of 7

AwayKasnik100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Vondrak7Kasnik3n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10

S2Vondrak2Kasnik8n = 10Kasnik took 8 of 10

S3Vondrak6Kasnik4n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10

S4Vondrak5Kasnik4n = 9Vondrak took 5 of 9

S5Vondrak3Kasnik2n = 5Vondrak took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricVondrakKasnikV − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.1+0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricVondrakKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 664 vs 476 / 101349.1%47%326 / 664 vs 476 / 1013Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.8per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13275219

Vondrak2.00

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog46% won 65 of 142

Down 0–1, comes back30% 20 of 66

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32

Kasnik1.73

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

90%takes the first set · 9 of 10

As favourite57% won 100 of 177

Up 2–0, closes it91% 58 of 64

Up 1–0, closes it75% 81 of 108

Michal Vondrak vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Vondrak vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.