TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Michal Vondrak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11714121210––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:13 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Michal Vondrak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 66 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Michal Vondrak at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 10–15 Michal Vondrak Michal Regner has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vondrak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-15 in 25
Vondrak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1664 vs Vondrak 1660
Regner
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 60% vs Vondrak 100%
Vondrak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Vondrak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +2 · Vondrak +5
Vondrak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vondrak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vondrak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.909 / Vondrak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vondrak)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258495
Regner1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 112 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 74
Vondrak1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 63 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 40 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner5wins
AwayVondrak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner50%4 of 8
AwayVondrakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner8Vondrak2n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S2Regner4Vondrak6n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10
S3Regner4Vondrak6n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10
S4Regner4Vondrak5n = 9Vondrak took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerVondrakR − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.4+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerVondrakBasisWin rate · lifetime526 / 1078 vs 323 / 65848.8%49.1%526 / 1078 vs 323 / 658Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakRegner 1.91/Vondrak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 02:00M. Regner3911116113M. Vondrak33881161
WSep 19 · 09:30M. Regner4211119113M. Vondrak25531161
WSep 19 · 06:30M. Regner50911118113M. Vondrak4511771192
LSep 4 · 09:30M. Regner399131161M. Vondrak4211155113
LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner34118871M. Vondrak4291111113
WAug 28 · 06:00M. Regner361312113M. Vondrak30111090
LJul 30 · 09:30M. Regner31117761M. Vondrak3961111113
LJul 30 · 06:00M. Regner4411871172M. Vondrak45811114113
LJul 15 · 13:29M. Regner33118951M. Vondrak4181111113
WJul 15 · 11:00M. Regner4211911113M. Vondrak32511971
M. Regner10
LOct 9 · 03:30M. Vondrak1.9171111113M. Regner1.80116961WOct 9 · 01:30M. Vizek2.63811111072M. Regner1.44118712113WOct 9 · 00:00M. Regner1.8311115113M. Sychra1.83961171LOct 8 · 23:00V. Vejvoda1.831111113M. Regner1.836670LOct 8 · 03:28M. Regner2.006960T. Batog1.731111113WOct 8 · 02:30V. Vejvoda1.91411751M. Regner1.8011911113WOct 8 · 01:00M. Sychra1.916470M. Regner1.801111113LOct 7 · 23:30M. Regner1.73451141J. Zuzanek2.0011119113LOct 7 · 22:00M. Regner1.91114101132T. Batog1.80911125113WOct 7 · 13:30M. Klement1.83911111162M. Regner1.83113136113
M. Vondrak10
WOct 9 · 03:30M. Vondrak1.9171111113M. Regner1.80116961WOct 9 · 01:00M. Sychra1.91411551M. Vondrak1.8011911113WOct 8 · 23:30M. Vondrak1.611111113M. Vizek2.205490WOct 8 · 22:00M. Vondrak2.0013111111113V. Vejvoda1.7315513762WOct 7 · 20:58M. Vondrak1.80911119113M. Sychra1.9111781172WOct 7 · 20:00M. Vondrak1.67114126113M. Sychra2.10811101172LOct 7 · 19:30J. Zuzanek2.001112123M. Vondrak1.73910100LOct 7 · 18:00M. Vondrak1.5399111162D. Hofman2.38111197113LOct 5 · 21:30M. Vondrak1.5749130L. Tonar2.251111153WOct 5 · 20:00M. Vondrak1.731111113L. Tonar2.006940
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