TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Vizek vs Michal Regner 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181171012711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:25 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vizek above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Michal Regner at 64.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vizek 0–1 Michal Regner Martin Vizek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:2564.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vizek 1632 vs Regner 1653
Regner
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vizek 40% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vizek 60% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vizek -2 · Regner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Regner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVizek 2.625 / Regner 1.444
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Regner)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258504
Vizek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 36 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Regner1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 90 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it66% 68 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVizek0wins
AwayRegner1wins
Regner leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricVizekRegnerV − RBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match28.035.0−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVizekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 441 vs 526 / 107851%48.8%225 / 441 vs 526 / 1078Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerVizek 2.63/Regner 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 28 · 23:30M. Vizek2889110M. Regner351111133
M. Vizek10
LOct 9 · 03:00V. Vejvoda1.5351111113M. Vizek2.38119931LOct 9 · 00:30V. Vejvoda1.53914125113M. Vizek2.381112101192LOct 8 · 23:30M. Vondrak1.611111113M. Vizek2.205490WOct 8 · 22:30M. Vizek2.0012119123M. Sychra1.7310411101WOct 8 · 03:30V. Cermak2.50611671M. Vizek1.5011611113LOct 8 · 02:30M. Vizek1.441011541V. Cermak2.6312411113WOct 8 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke2.20117121152M. Vizek1.61811146113WOct 8 · 00:00M. Vizek1.67111186123K. Brozhik2.10681111102WOct 7 · 23:00F. Just2.251191021M. Vizek1.5781112113WOct 4 · 17:30M. Nohejl2.10118761M. Vizek1.6791111113
M. Regner10
LOct 9 · 03:30M. Vondrak1.9171111113M. Regner1.80116961WOct 9 · 02:30M. Regner1.911114123M. Vondrak1.80712100WOct 9 · 00:00M. Regner1.8311115113M. Sychra1.83961171LOct 8 · 23:00V. Vejvoda1.831111113M. Regner1.836670LOct 8 · 03:28M. Regner2.006960T. Batog1.731111113WOct 8 · 02:30V. Vejvoda1.91411751M. Regner1.8011911113WOct 8 · 01:00M. Sychra1.916470M. Regner1.801111113LOct 7 · 23:30M. Regner1.73451141J. Zuzanek2.0011119113LOct 7 · 22:00M. Regner1.91114101132T. Batog1.80911125113WOct 7 · 13:30M. Klement1.83911111162M. Regner1.83113136113
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