TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vondrak vs Martin Vizek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115114119––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:24 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Martin Vizek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Michal Vondrak at 58.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 6–3 Martin Vizek Martin Vizek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2458.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vondrak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Vondrak
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1638 vs Vizek 1658
Vizek
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 60% vs Vizek 80%
Vizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 70% vs Vizek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak +3 · Vizek +2
Vondrak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Vondrak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vizek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 1.615 / Vizek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vondrak)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259654
Vondrak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 63 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 40 of 56
Vizek2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 36 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVondrak6wins
AwayVizek3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderVondrak leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrak71.4%5 of 7
AwayVizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak7Vizek2n = 9Vondrak took 7 of 9
S2Vondrak3Vizek6n = 9Vizek took 6 of 9
S3Vondrak4Vizek5n = 9Vizek took 5 of 9
S4Vondrak5Vizek4n = 9Vondrak took 5 of 9
S5Vondrak3Vizek1n = 4Vondrak took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricVondrakVizekVondrak − VizekBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match43.143.0+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakVizekBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 656 vs 225 / 43948.9%51.3%321 / 656 vs 225 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakVondrak 1.61/Vizek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 30 · 12:00M. Vondrak501111611113M. Vizek4671311782
WOct 16 · 10:00M. Vondrak4311714113M. Vizek336111241
LOct 14 · 17:30M. Vondrak301152121M. Vizek4591111143
WOct 14 · 16:00M. Vondrak4013511113M. Vizek341111571
WSep 23 · 21:00M. Vondrak531191111113M. Vizek4713115992
LSep 23 · 18:00M. Vondrak4211118662M. Vizek51991111113
LSep 18 · 17:30M. Vondrak33911581M. Vizek3811511113
WSep 18 · 15:00M. Vondrak50111287123M. Vizek519101111102
WJul 23 · 14:00M. Vondrak47121014113M. Vizek4210121281
M. Vondrak10
WOct 8 · 22:00M. Vondrak2.0013111111113V. Vejvoda1.7315513762WOct 7 · 20:58M. Vondrak1.80911119113M. Sychra1.9111781172WOct 7 · 20:00M. Vondrak1.67114126113M. Sychra2.10811101172LOct 7 · 19:30J. Zuzanek2.001112123M. Vondrak1.73910100LOct 7 · 18:00M. Vondrak1.5399111162D. Hofman2.38111197113LOct 5 · 21:30M. Vondrak1.5749130L. Tonar2.251111153WOct 5 · 20:00M. Vondrak1.731111113L. Tonar2.006940WOct 5 · 19:30A. Brazda1.577590M. Vondrak2.251111113WOct 5 · 18:00M. Vondrak2.0011116113M. Klement1.73691181WOct 2 · 03:04M. Klement1.8511891162M. Vondrak1.85211116113
M. Vizek10
LOct 9 · 00:30V. Vejvoda1.53914125113M. Vizek2.381112101192WOct 8 · 22:30M. Vizek2.0012119123M. Sychra1.7310411101WOct 8 · 03:30V. Cermak2.50611671M. Vizek1.5011611113LOct 8 · 02:30M. Vizek1.441011541V. Cermak2.6312411113WOct 8 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke2.20117121152M. Vizek1.61811146113WOct 8 · 00:00M. Vizek1.67111186123K. Brozhik2.10681111102WOct 7 · 23:00F. Just2.251191021M. Vizek1.5781112113WOct 4 · 17:30M. Nohejl2.10118761M. Vizek1.6791111113LOct 4 · 16:00J. Zuzanek2.001311116113M. Vizek1.73111361172WOct 4 · 15:00M. Nohejl2.1036111182M. Vizek1.67111157113
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